2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

New abc/wapo poll of likely 2022 voters

Gop 54
Dems 41

That is the result for certain voters not likely voters.  Registered voters, a better metric at this point, is 49 R - 42 D (not good but actually a 3 point improvement for D's since the last WAPO/ABC poll).

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21274844-2022-02-24-trend-for-release

All wrong again and you are misleading people!

The 49-42 figure is among "Registered Voters" per RealClearPolitics Website, while the 54-41 figure is among Likely Voters.

Read what CNN's Harry Enten wrote last week that Polls are underestimating Republican Support and he expects Republicans gaining up to 5 Percentage Points when it is switched to a Likely Voter Screen.

None of it is good in this Poll for Biden!

[2016]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never

You will be crying in your basement come November when Democrats will have big losses as will other Democrats. And your hyperbolic Predictions will be "Rebuked".

[2016]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never

You will be crying in your basement come November when Democrats will have big losses as will other Democrats. And your hyperbolic Predictions will be "Rebuked".

He’s OC so chill.

Interesting when you look at the ABC Poll Voters do not seem too much interested what happens in the Ukraine now. Top Issues are Economy & Inflation. Voters giving Republicans a 19-Point lead (54/35) over Democrats on the Economy. That is very problematic for Biden & Democrats.

[2016]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never

You will be crying in your basement come November when Democrats will have big losses as will other Democrats. And your hyperbolic Predictions will be "Rebuked".

He’s OC so chill.

Interesting when you look at the ABC Poll Voters do not seem too much interested what happens in the Ukraine now. Top Issues are Economy & Inflation. Voters giving Republicans a 19-Point lead (54/35) over Democrats on the Economy. That is very problematic for Biden & Democrats.

Didn’t the poll stop being conducted on the 24th?

I think you might be right but usually Americans only care about these Foreign Relations if their own Troops are fighting. As long as Biden doesn't activly sent ground troops into Ukraine they won't care too much about it.

Generally speaking though National Security is an Issue that usually benefitted Republicans. Only Excemption was 2012 I think.

[2016]

I still feel quite good about Republicans taking the House.

Texas Primary was 64 % Republican / 36 % Democratic

We will have to see if this holds in places like Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc in May.

[2016]

I still feel quite good about Republicans taking the House.

Texas Primary was 64 % Republican / 36 % Democratic

We will have to see if this holds in places like Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc in May.

Those are actually liberal saboteurs who showed up just to defeat the Trumpians. Strangely enough, my cousin’s sister-in-law’s friend is one of these and he said he’s a Biden -> Biden disapprover -> generic ballot undecided -> R primary -> straight ticket D voter

Nonsense! The Enthusiasm all over the Country are with Republicans. You will see Record Primary Turnouts in GOP Primaries.

[2016]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

[2016]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

That's not the Point! The Point is no way on Earth would Republicans lose an R +30 District in a Biden Midterm NO MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS!

[2016]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

[2016]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

I trust Trafalgar Poll a lot. They nailed VA & NJ Governor Races! They had WI, MI, PA way tighter than other Polls in the 2020 Race.

NBC Exit Poll 2014 had Obama at 44 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 45,5 % Nationally that year for the Democrats.

NBC Exit Poll 2018 had Trump at 45 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 44,8 % Nationally that year for Republicans.

So YES, usually the President JA and the National House Vote tracking very close together.

Also, the new WSJ Poll seems ok too.

[2016]

So you little Olowakandi,
NBC is now showing Republicans with their first GCB lead since 2014 (46-44) and Bidens JA down to 40 %.

RED WAVE Incoming!!!

[2016]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

[2016]

To give you some sense how bad Joe Bidens Approvals are:

North Carolina/Civitas Poll

JA Pres Biden

Approve 36 %
Disapprove 56 %

Republicans lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in the State of North Carolina by 12 Points (52-40) and the Legislative Ballot by 10 Points (51-41).

And that's just ONE STATE folks! GOP might pick up a couple of House Districts in the State with these sort of Numbers.

[2016]

New Insider Advantage Poll has Republicans leading Democrats among Likely Voters by 12 Points (51-39). That seems more in line with the National Environment Democrats are facing.

The left-leaning Havard/Harris Poll has the GCB tied which is crap

https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/25/insider-advantage-poll-trump-would-beat-biden-47-percent-to-43-percent-if-election-were-held-today/

Trump leads Biden 47-43 in 2024 Rematch.

[2016]

BRUTAL GCB POLL coming out tonight or tomorrow.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/04/politics/cnn-poll-economy-biden-approval/index.html

CNN/SSRS has Bidens Approval at - 18 at 40/59

I wonder what the GCB Test will be.

[2016]

Fox already posted 7 Rs on GCB there is no brutal than that

CNN will show possibly Republicans with 8-9 Point lead.

[2016]

Fox already posted 7 Rs on GCB there is no brutal than that

CNN will show possibly Republicans with 8-9 Point lead.

Cut it out, the inerrant pollster king YouGov has spoken and they say it’s D+6

I am not looking just at Polls BUT the Turnout Numbers from Ohio are a full-blown disaster for Democrats according to NBC's Chuck Todd.

Republicans in the Governor Race got 1,070,000 while Democrats barely got 500K.

[2016]

CNN/SSRS Poll who has the GOP up 49-42 among "LIKELY VOTERS".

I say this again: Registered Voter Polls overestimating Democrats massivly.

[2016]

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

[2016]

Lol, the CNN has a 6pt shift to the GOP after the Roe decision was leaked. They had R+1 from April 28- May 1 and R +7 from May 3-5.

Senate Lean R —> Lean D

The average American voter has a room temperature IQ, so this shouldn't surprise anyone.

The Economy is good but the reason why voters are still mad because the Gas prices we gotta wait till see in the Fall to see if the Gas prices but there aren't anymore 33% as I see it 45 is close to 50%

LOL, the Economy is bad, even the Stock Market tanked!

I know this is impossible for you, but quit cherry picking data.

There is no cherry picking. Democrats are done! People are voting on Inflation, Crime, Immigration and the Economy and not Abortion.

[2016]

It’s amazing that the two prominent D hacks on this board are only able to find generic ballots with D leads. It’s radio silence on the R +8 D internal or the R +5 Qpac polls

I've given up posting in this Thread because of these hacks. Let's let them talk amongst themselves

[2016]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

[2016]

Here are the Full Cook House Ratings
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

This is what I said would happen Months ago. There are now enough Seats East of the Mississippi River to give Republicans a House Majority.

Cook has it
208 Republican (incl Likely & Leaners)
188 Democrat (incl Likely & Leaners)
32 Toss Up

Republicans only need 10 of the 32 Toss Up Seats based on Cooks current Ratings to give them a House Majority while Democrats would need to win 30 out of the 32 Toss Up Seats to retain it.

That's why most of the Political Handicappers in D. C. have the House as a Likely Republican Control.

[2016]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

[2016]

Sabato/Kondik update their House Ratings after the June 7th Primaries


Republican 214
Democrat 193
Toss Up 28