NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[2016]

Beasley said on her Twitter she wants to end the Senate Filibuster.
Doesn't she know that North Carolina isn't New York or some other progressive State.
https://twitter.com/CheriBeasleyNC/status/1578550858513412096

She may have lost the Election with her stance wanting to end the Filibuster BUT it gives every Republican here on Talk Elections and accross the Country + North Carolina a taste how radical these Democrats are.

[2016]

Beasley is the much better candidate (and by far the best Dem Senate candidate NC has had since Kay Hagan).  And I think Beasley has a good chance of eeking out a win.  But I do think she needs to step up her Ad game. 

(In general, Budd is doing a better job of marketing himself (even if falsely so)- otherwise I think Beasley would already have a slight lead in the polls).


Beasley is the adult in the room.  Budd is the more fringe candidate (compared to the average NC swing voter).  Also Budd is the sort of squirmy/ slimy- say anything with a smile type... which works if not pressed... but becomes pretty easy to see- if there is a targeted effort to make sure the average public voter sees it.

Beasley Campaign needs to drive those 2 sentiments into the minds of swing voters.

Give me a break comparing Beasley to Hagan. Beasley is waaay to the left of Hagan. North Carolina will never elect such a Progressive Candidate.

[2016]

Sophisticated Model gives Budd the edge in NC
https://twitter.com/woodchuckofjoy/status/1580960496257073159

[2016]

More models should start releasing their data in 10000 x 12000 resolution!

I've changed it. You can download the pics from the guys Twitter Feed if you want

He predicts:
Budd (R) 2,321,759 - 51,5 %
Beasley (D) 2,087,913 - 46,3 %

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/nc/senate/exitpoll/
2014 NC Exit Poll was 74 % White 21 % Black

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/north-carolina-senate-results
2020 NC Exit Poll (Senate) was 65 % White and 23 % Black.

My guess is that Beasley needs 23 % or more Black Turnout in NC to have a shot to win.

[2016]

Sophisticated Model gives Budd the edge in NC
https://twitter.com/woodchuckofjoy/status/1580960496257073159

what world is this guy living in where the sandhills, the black belt, jacksonville/beaufort, and the outer banks are all one region

Bottom Line though is: Beasley needs Obama 2008 Presidential Turnout to win this among Black Voters in particular. Given that she is more an Activist then a Politician I've a hard time seeing here winning.

[2016]

I think Budd is favored, but I don't buy the argument that there is some kind of invisible wall preventing Democrats from ever winning North Carolina. Just like there was in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.

Beasley is to the left of Cal Cunningham. She is too progressive for the State. There is a reason Kay Hagan won once and lost once. Democrats need more Moderate Candidates in States like North Carolina (Beasley), Florida (Demings), Wisconsin (Barnes) and not Progressives.

[2016]

Look, Cheri Beasley is basically the Ketanji Brown-Jackson of North Carolina. If you compare Brown-Jackson to Beasley you can see that their views are quite similar.

[2016]

I think Budd is favored, but I don't buy the argument that there is some kind of invisible wall preventing Democrats from ever winning North Carolina. Just like there was in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.

Not sure anyone thinks North Carolina is unwinnable for the Democratic Party, but there's no evidence they're going to win it this year. I do think the state is suddenly under-polled, though, so that could be why.

North Carolina is winnable for the Dems in a Presidential Year, hands down and if Trump is the Nominee again they are probably going to win it in 2024 methinks.

You make a good Point. If NC was truly a TOSS UP like other States we would have seen a lot more Polls. There is a reason Cook, Sabato and Insight Elections have this as Leans R.

[2016]

Pat McCrory is now a NBC Contributor. Maybe he should become a Democrat. This is absolutely ridiculous.