Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently, AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA
Let me tell you something:
Losing FL and OH BUT winning the the Presidency, things do not work that way in American Politics. Every Winner of the POTUS Election since 1996 has carried FL & OH. Bill Clinton managed to lose FL in 1992 but won the Election and that's it. GWB carried FL & OH in '00 & '04 twice and so did Obama in '08 & '12. Trump carried FL & OH in 2016.
Good Luck winning FL when you have a GOP Governor with a 65+ JA Rating sitting in Tallahassee.
Republicans are going to win FL because they have the better Infrastructure & GOTV Machine. That's being proven over the last 2 Election Cycles in 2016 & 2018.
In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade by a whopping 64-34 margin over Trump which was the biggest margin for a Democrat EVER in that County. She carried Hillsborough County, the biggest Swing County not only in FL but in the entire Country by 6 Points. It wasn't enough!
In 2018, a D-Wave year considering they netted 40 House Seats Democrats won the important Counties of Duval, Pinellas, H'Borough, Osceola, Orange YET Gillum & Nelson lost the State.
Conclusion: When it matters most the RNC (2016) and the FL State GOP (2018) delivered and I have no reason to believe that they won't do that again.
NC is the most iffy State for Trump & Tillis having a DEM Governor who will likely expand early voting again. Trump will lose Michigan (because of Whitmer who is similar popular like DeSantis in FL) and Pennslyvania.
Evers in WI seems to me more an accidential Governor and won't have much impact.
I'd say Trump wins 270-268.
