PA-Big Data Poll: Oz+2

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

Big Data's ban may also have to do with the fact that Baris is an unabashed Trumpist.

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

Big Data's ban may also have to do with the fact that Baris is an unabashed Trumpist.

So is Cahaly, and Trafalgar is still in the average (and highly rated!)

Yet Trafalgar has the same reputation as Big Data with many people, especially Democrats and left-leaning people.

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

Big Data's ban may also have to do with the fact that Baris is an unabashed Trumpist.

So is Cahaly, and Trafalgar is still in the average (and highly rated!)

Yet Trafalgar has the same reputation as Big Data with many people, especially Democrats and left-leaning people.

This has absolutely nothing to do with why Big Data was banned by 538.  Would you at least acknowledge that your suggestion that 538 banned them due to political differences was not justified?

I've read that 538 found that Big Data was falsifying some of their data, but I also referred to the feud between Baris and Silver. Baris absolutely detests Silver and repeatedly attacks him. But as I said, in less than two weeks, we'll know who's right. Will it be a neutral or Democratic-leaning year, as many on this forum believe, or will it be a Republican-leaning or wave year?

[Calthrina950]

But as I said, in less than two weeks, we'll know who's right. Will it be a neutral or Democratic-leaning year, as many on this forum believe, or will it be a Republican-leaning or wave year?

Which will say absolutely nothing about the merits of this individual poll or pollster.

The results in a few weeks will be very revealing. As I said, if pollsters such as this one turn out to be more accurate than the pollsters lauded by many on this forum, people here will continue to act as they did before, and bash the pollsters they don't like. Conversely, if pollsters such as this one are wrong, then they are wrong, and ought to be regarded with the same kind of skepticism as some regard the others.

People on here claim that I am biased and I've become too invested in defending the legitimacy of polls. But they refuse to believe that they themselves are biased, and only trust the pollsters who generate the results which they desire. And they are more likely to express feelings of giddiness or hope if pollsters show a positive result for a Democratic candidate, even if such a result is unlikely or not that plausible.