PA-Big Data Poll: Oz+2

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1586501758674620417?cxt=HHwWgsCqlbS8sYQsA...
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1586529948835401731?cxt=HHwWhsDSnaWlvoQsA...

Baris is banned from 538 but his 2016 and 2020 PA polls apparently were pretty accurate. Don't know about 2018.

[Eraserhead]

These Republican polls are struggling to find much of a lead for Oz post-debate.

[jamestroll]

Why is this poll banned from 538?

[Dani Rose]

I won't disparage their record, but I do find this hard to believe when Trump is off the ballot and the EV here is only continuing to get better for us.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2 pts in PA is not great for an R

[Inmate Trump]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

[SnowLabrador]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds underestimated Oz he was the best candidate they had clearly over Fetterman but it's not over 2 pts is a statistical tie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

2 pts is still a statistical tie with Shapiro on the same ballot

[Eraserhead]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 51/49 race is not Lean R but all the users said when Barnes was down by 2 WI was Lean R and PA was safe D, now Fetterman is down 51/49 if Evers and Shapiro wins I high am skeptical that Fetterman and Barnes loses

That's why I criticize Fetterman but haven't changed my prediction maps , because Sisolak, Evers , Whitmer and Shapiro are gonna pull CCM, Barnes and Fetterman across

But, as I said the politicians said Malcolm Keynatta was too liberal to win and Fetterman is very liberal as well we could of nominated either one

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 51/49 race isn't Lean R it's a tossup

[GeorgiaModerate]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

[free my dawg]

At the risk of sounding like I'm coping and seething, I'm still waiting for a more established poll.

[President Johnson]

Lots of ugly Pennsylvania senate polls out these days.

While Shapiro remains an overwhelming favorite, Fetterman's star really seems in decline as of lately. I'm not saying Oz has this in the bag, but this is a tossup race again. I hope Shapiro can drag Fetterman over the finishline here. And I remember some months ago when he polled better than Shapiro. Early polls are really just worthless.

[GALeftist]

I won't disparage their record

I will. This pollster is fake, they are literally banned by 538

[DrScholl]

I won't disparage their record

I will. This pollster is fake, they are literally banned by 538

I was getting ready to say the same thing. They were called out as being fake. If my recollection is correct they just make up numbers.

[Sestak]

The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Just to be clear, the so-called "accuracy" of the "Big Data poll" comes from one guy's random tweet responses to Jack Posobiec. There's a reason 538 has them banned (even while giving high ratings to the other polls you mentioned alongside it).

[Dani Rose]

The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Just to be clear, the so-called "accuracy" of the "Big Data poll" comes from one guy's random tweet responses to Jack Posobiec. There's a reason 538 has them banned (even while giving high ratings to the other polls you mentioned alongside it).

Even Trafalgar mostly seems to throw things at the wall and see what sticks, if the absolutely looney-tunes polls they've put out this year are any measure. Maybe they have a better read on what's going in in the Midwest, which is classically their strongest region, but even there I think they've just ended up getting lucky by predicting substantial Republican overperformances in years where they incidentally ended up happening.

[Person Man]

The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Just to be clear, the so-called "accuracy" of the "Big Data poll" comes from one guy's random tweet responses to Jack Posobiec. There's a reason 538 has them banned (even while giving high ratings to the other polls you mentioned alongside it).

Even Trafalgar mostly seems to throw things at the wall and see what sticks, if the absolutely looney-tunes polls they've put out this year are any measure. Maybe they have a better read on what's going in in the Midwest, which is classically their strongest region, but even there I think they've just ended up getting lucky by predicting substantial Republican overperformances in years where they incidentally ended up happening.

They gave the best case scenario for Republicans and they were right. Republicans turned out based on their candidate being a celebrity.

[win win]

like it or not t, that's 4 polls in a row showing Oz ahead

after a string of 30+ fetterman wins

momentum muh friends, has shifted

this week we got a lot of Oz and Walker up polls
next week we get some Masters ahead polls, and it's all over

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

[kwabbit]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

[Calthrina950]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

Big Data's ban may also have to do with the fact that Baris is an unabashed Trumpist.