NY SLINGSHOT STRATEGY GOV HOCHUL +6

[Calthrina950]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

Why not? Paladino carried Erie County in 2010, despite losing in a landslide, and Cuomo lost Monroe County in 2014, despite beating Astorino by almost 14% that year. Onondaga County has gone Republican in congressional races and went Republican in the Comptroller's race back in 2010. I can easily see Hochul losing those counties if she wins by only single digits, especially since they are all to the right of the state.

[Calthrina950]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

Why not? Paladino carried Erie County in 2010, despite losing in a landslide, and Cuomo lost Monroe County in 2014, despite beating Astorino by almost 14% that year. Onondaga County has gone Republican in congressional races and went Republican in the Comptroller's race back in 2010. I can easily see Hochul losing those counties if she wins by only single digits, especially since they are all to the right of the state.

Hochul is from Erie County just like Paladino.

True, but I've read that she's not particularly popular there.

[Calthrina950]

This poll proves that Wick and Co EFFICIENT are just as bad as Trafalgar, they have Oz and Zeldin winning and TRAFALGAR has Walz losing no pollster has WaLz losing

This poll is literally in the Margin of error of the last Tralfagar poll of this race, and matches the exact margin of this co efficient poll from September.

https://app.displayr.com/Dashboard?id=c96119e9-ba64-432c-9370-ea12ed8d7f96#page=74706541-0795-448f-9a26-6880f4d33ff0

Trafalgar was widely mocked for showing this race as competitive, but now they are being vindicated.

[Calthrina950]

If Hochul wins this year, and we assume that her term goes badly, is it possible that Republicans finally manage to win in 2026? Or will she merely be ousted in a primary and succeeded by a more likeable Democrat?

[Calthrina950]

If Hochul wins this year, and we assume that her term goes badly, is it possible that Republicans finally manage to win in 2026? Or will she merely be ousted in a primary and succeeded by a more likeable Democrat?

I don't think it will but the most likely person I could see ousting her in a primary is Tish  James.

But James isn't that popular herself, if I'm correct.