Why did Ford win VA in 1976?

[Calthrina950]

That was a weird election in general. It was the only time NM voted for the loser of the popular vote.

Carter was unpopular in the West, which had to do with his positions on issues such as water rights, as well as his evangelical Christianity, which was apparently a turnoff to voters in much of the region (such as in the Pacific Northwest). This also revealed itself in 1980, when Carter was crushed throughout the West by Reagan.

[Calthrina950]

That was a weird election in general. It was the only time NM voted for the loser of the popular vote.

Carter was unpopular in the West, which had to do with his positions on issues such as water rights, as well as his evangelical Christianity, which was apparently a turnoff to voters in much of the region (such as in the Pacific Northwest). This also revealed itself in 1980, when Carter was crushed throughout the West by Reagan.

Except for Oregon and Hawaii. The first was the closest state to Ford, and trended left in 1980. The last actually voted for Carter twice.

You are right. It's somewhat surprising that Carter held Hawaii in 1980, given that he only won it narrowly in 1976. But Hawaii typically has a pro-incumbent streak, and that must have benefited him that year. And Oregon would have gone for Carter had it not been for Eugene McCarthy. The state was to the left of the national average by that point.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah DC suburbs provided the tipping point but they weren't that Republican by vote margin once you factor in Alexandria and Arlington. Richmond suburbs were the clear GOP base.

Alexandria and Arlington both voted for Carter that year, went for Reagan by pluralities in 1980, and flipped to Mondale in 1984. They clearly tilted Democratic by that point, and Republican strength in Northern Virginia was already beginning to slip. You are certainly correct about the Richmond suburbs (Chesterfield and Henrico Counties). They are also the reason why Goldwater was within single digits in Virginia in 1964, as he crushed Johnson in those two counties.