Rate Minnesota

[Calthrina950]

Lean D. Minnesota continues to remain a very difficult state for Republicans. They haven't won any statewide elections there since 2006, and the state's legendary Democratic voting streak at the presidential level remains. Walz is relatively popular, and I think he'll win by a clear, if underwhelming, margin.

[Calthrina950]

The Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage

Almost universal. Amy Klobuchar is the lone Democrat in recent years who has consistently gotten above 55% statewide, receiving 58% in 2006, 65% in 2012, and 60% in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

The Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage

Almost universal. Amy Klobuchar is the lone Democrat in recent years who has consistently gotten above 55% statewide, receiving 58% in 2006, 65% in 2012, and 60% in 2018.

I'm excited to see how she does in 2024. I think she will receive her lowest percentage yet, but still outperform the presidential candidate. It'll be interesting to see how Schumer does this year, as there were a ton of Trump-Schumer split-ticket voters in 2016, but I expect him to lose pretty much all of upstate New York this year.

A Klobuchar victory along the lines of 55-43% or so wouldn't be surprising to me. And Schumer could be held under 60% this year, which would be a dramatic decline for him.