If Hogan decides to run, he will lose decisively, just like former Governors Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, and Bullock did in their Senatorial races. This seems suspiciously similar, in fact, to early polls we saw in Indiana and in Tennessee, where Bayh and Bredesen led by substantial margins, only for Young and Blackburn to close the gap (if there ever was one) and to win by high single to low double digits on Election Day. Hogan might be able to crack 40%, but he would still lose to Van Hollen by 12-20 points.
He wouldn't win, but he would easily crack 40%.
It's possible that he might fall short of that mark.
