It's hard to say in the end, though I tend to believe Trump winning reelection without the pandemic is a myth. He was already one of the most unpopular presidents in history and had a relatively wide coalition against him. I'm not convinced he would have won otherwise, though for sure I can't rule it out.
Trump came so close to winning reelection even with the pandemic. Without the pandemic, I think he might have actually gotten over the finish line. It would have been close all the same, but Democrats would have had less of a persuasive argument to make to independents. Biden won largely because of moderate and independent voters who didn't think Trump was handling the pandemic appropriately or seriously enough and thought Biden would "right the ship."
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