How would Buttigieg have done in the midwest rust belt states in the General Election?

[Calthrina950]

Buttigieg would have done worse than Biden, and would have lost the election. I think Trump would have held Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Buttigieg may have still won back Michigan, but it would have been by a narrower margin, resembling that in the Senate race between James and Peters. Trump would have probably got in the low teens among black voters. Outside of the Upper Midwest, I think Trump would have held Georgia and probably Arizona also, and he would have won Florida and North Carolina by slightly more.

[Calthrina950]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

Speaking of that, do you know how much different African-Americans voted before Obama? Did Biden do better than Gore?

Blacks have effectively reverted to how they voted prior to Obama. Gore won blacks 90-9%, slightly outperforming Biden (who won them 87-12%), while Kerry won them 88-11% or about the same as Biden. Clinton and Carter both got in the low to mid 80s among black voters (with Perot and Anderson taking away some votes), while Mondale and Dukakis got 91% and 89% among them.

[Calthrina950]

Worse than Biden, but I think he would have won Wisconsin by 0.1-0.5, Michigan by 0.5-2.0, and Pennsylvania by 0.1-0.9

There is no way he does worst than Biden but wins Wisconsin.

Biden won WI/MI/PA by 0.65%, 2.8%, and 1.2%

If he loses any support, WI is gone

Plus Buttigieg, being gay, would lose some minority support so there goes AZ and GA. Boom Trump wins a second term

Tammy Baldwin is way more progressive than Buttigieg and won easily in 2018 in WISCONSIN

Baldwin has much more substantive beliefs than Pete, and is an underrated master of retail politics (see her work for the state's dairy industry). Also, it was 2018.

I recall reading an article in which Wisconsin farmers who typically vote Republican and are more conservative than Baldwin on balance nevertheless voted for her because they viewed her as effectively representing their interests. The benefits conferred by incumbency and retail politics have not completely dissipated even in this age of increasing polarization. This also helps to explain why Susan Collins won reelection in Maine last year.