No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.
In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.
That's not going to happen, but I think it's possible, even likely that Cuomo wins even fewer counties than last time. His 15 could easily go to 10 in 2022, even if he wins.
The 2020 Presidential Election was D+4.5%, and we're going to approximate that that was roughly the "national environment" in 2020. Even in a midterm that goes decently for the Democrats, the national vote would be more like R+2. Just applying a blanket 6.5% rightward shift to Cuomo's results loses him Onondaga, Staten Island, and Suffolk Counties. Once you factor in Cuomo's declining popularity and the disproportionate dislike for him Upstate, I don't think him losing Erie and/or Monroe County is at all unlikely (both were under 52% Cuomo). I wouldn't be shocked if all he wins are Tompkins, Westchester, and Nassau Counties + the 4 Boroughs in NYC. He will certainly win in any case, but he could get wiped out Upstate.
Nassau is far from a lock for Cuomo. I’m curious as to how Schumer will do. In the past, he’s gotten a ton of crossover appeal upstate.
I suspect Schumer will do much worse in Upstate then he did in 2004, 2010, and 2016, and will have a performance similar to that of Kristen Gillibrand in 2018. She herself did much worse than she had in 2010 and 2012, losing many of the Upstate counties that she had previously carried. As last year's Senatorial races showed, polarization is now
heavily influencing them as well-the same kind of polarization as can be found at the presidential level. Senatorial candidates have become more associated with their party, and less capable of breaking away from its brand, although there continue to be some exceptions (i.e. Susan Collins, Joe Manchin, Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester).
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