SC-GOV 2022 Megathread: Cunningham IN

[Calthrina950]

I would not be surprised if it isn't competitive in the end. I remember Jaime Harrison polling ahead of Graham in 2020 only to see him lose by over 10%.

The issue is SC is a pretty inelastic state with a 55-44 Republican lean and it doesn't seem like that can be broken. Joe may do better because of the abortion issue, but I don't think it will be enough to get him over the finish line.

I'm expecting Cunningham to lose by high single digits, ~53-45% or 53-46%. South Carolina remains elusive for Democrats and is unwinnable for them, in contrast to Georgia and North Carolina.

[Calthrina950]

Amazed I haven’t seen more discussion of this race.

Last Trafalgar poll a few weeks ago was McMaster 51%–Cunningham 43%; the traditional wisdom is that Trafalgar nails the R vote share but not the D one, which makes it 51-49.

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

That traditional wisdom is wrong.

What is the "actual" wisdom about Trafalgar?

[Calthrina950]

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

No. This state is getting whiter and it's not D-friendly whites either. No Democrat will win this state for the next century.

We're seeing the same thing play out in SC as is around many states. A lot of the rural county democrats are moving to the GOP and the urban areas like Charleston, Columbia, etc are trending to the Democrats. Even Greenville County trended somewhat left in 2020 even though Trump still won big there.

There are five counties in South Carolina that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice - Barnwell, Colleton, Calhoun, Chester, and McCormick. And Biden generally did worse than Obama throughout the rural parts of the state, while improving in Charleston, Columbia, and Greenville as you noted above. This is just a further manifestation of the widening urban-rural divide between the two parties.