CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Calthrina950]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

I'm aware. I don't believe I ever implied otherwise?

I wasn't questioning you; I was pointing out a fact.

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

This is what happens when Democrats make it all about Trump, and act as though he's an anomaly.

That much is true. But as I've said before, many voters aren't comfortable with all of the Democratic Party's policies, and have voted accordingly.

[Calthrina950]

Amazing to me that pelosi isn’t going to step down as speaker

I don't like Pelosi, but there is no other Democrat in the House who has the political abilities which she has, while presently being able to command a majority of the Democratic caucus. In any case, I imagine that this is Pelosi's last term as Speaker (whether or not Democrats lose the majority in the midterms), and that she will retire from leadership-if not from the House entirely-in 2022.

[Calthrina950]

More their messaging than their policies, I'd say.

Messaging is a problem, that's true. But I'm skeptical that voters are in complete agreement with the Democratic Party's policies, as they are.

[Calthrina950]

lmao

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1330263171429511174

Florida and Texas truly have put California and New York to shame. It's embarrassing how incompetent and how slow the electoral systems in the latter two states are.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711404?unlock=VVXHB670VQZFC100

National Journal put out their list of the biggest political "turkeys" of the year. They are:
1. Martha McSally, for being one of the few Republican Senate candidates to run behind Trump in a state that he only barely lost
2. Amy McGrift, for raising $88M and still losing to Cocaine Mitch by 20 points
3. Mike Bloomberg, for also proving that money can't always buy votes
4. David Richter in NJ-03, for not self-funding in a very expensive district and going on to lose by 8 points in a district that was pretty much tied at the presidential level
5. Progressive Democratic challengers (Kara Eastman in NE-02, Dana Balter in NY-24, Wendy Davis in TX-21, Mike Siegel in TX-10, and Candace Valenzuela in TX-24), all of whom lost and ran significantly behind Biden
6. GOP recruitment failures in districts that ended up being surprisingly close (CA-45, MI-11, IL-14. Even though it's not mentioned, NY-19 is arguably the most glaring example)
7. The whole polling industry for consistently overestimating Democrats at all levels

If I'm not mistaken, at least three of these candidates-Eastman, Balter, and Siegel-were retread candidates, having previously lost to Bacon, Katko, and McCaul in 2018. If true, it seems that all three are losing by larger margins this time than they did then. And Wendy Davis has now suffered two humiliating defeats. Her 7-pt. loss against Roy wasn't as devastating as the 21-pt. loss she had against Abbott in 2014, but that is still a decisive defeat. I'd imagine her political career might very well be over after this. Valenzuela, however, could try again in 2022-although Texas Republicans might try to shore up Van Duyne with redistricting.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1330918488307851276
McSally did slightly better in suburban AZ-06 than in 2018.

Edit: Also, Kelly did 5 points better in AZ-02 than Sinema. Both Kelly and McSally live in AZ-02.

It's astonishing that Democrats still couldn't flip AZ-06, either for Congress, President, or Senate. The congressional districts broke just as they did in 2018, except that Kelly did better in AZ-02, as you noted, than Sinema, and probably outperformed her slightly everywhere else.

[Calthrina950]

This article gives a really good summary of where things stand in IA-02:

https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1331626212976959488?s=21

The state of Iowa is set to certify statewide results on Monday at 3:00 pm. I imagine IA-02 will be a legal battle for awhile even after Monday, though?

they literally look like the same person lol

Not quite, but there is a resemblance in that both are blondes, both are middle aged, and both wear glasses. And they say that all blacks look alike! Well, speaking as a black person, I've seen many whites who look alike as well-particularly at my job.

[Calthrina950]

As far as i can tell, batsh*t crazy Kathy Barnette in PA-04 has not conceded yet to Madeleine Dean. She lost by nearly 20%.

She hasn't tweeted since 11/11, and before that it was... insane

https://twitter.com/Kathy4Truth

I don't want to sound offensive but I seem to notice that black republicans tend to be more nutjoby/crazy than other republicans. Anyone else notice that?

Some are. But you also have people like Will Hurd, Tim Scott and Michael Steele who are decidedly not crazy.

There seems to be a combination of craziness and sanity among black Republicans. For example, the chair of the local Republican Party where I live (El Paso County), is a black woman named Vickie Tonkins. Tonkins has gotten herself in trouble with the Party, and received criticism within the media, for suggesting that the coronavirus pandemic is a hoax. She was urged to resign from her post, but did not. Tonkins also ran for the El Paso County Board of Commissioners in 2018, but lost the Republican primary to a white woman.

And of course, El Paso County is the home of Darryl Glenn, the former El Paso County Commissioner who lost to Michael Bennet in 2016, and who unsuccessfully primaried Doug Lamborn in 2018. Glenn branded himself as a "proud constitutional conservative" during his campaign, and has generally tried to avoid association with the local black community.

[Calthrina950]

there are around 10 million people in Los Angeles County.  Is the 25th district entirely in Los Angeles County?

No, CA-25 includes a portion of Ventura County, which is more Republican than Los Angeles County-both in general, and with regards to this district.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KatieHill4CA/status/1333602380982726657

Had Katie Hill been more careful with how she handled her relationships with her staff, she would still be in the House and probably would have been reelected, although it would have been a relatively close margin.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KatieHill4CA/status/1333602380982726657

Had Katie Hill been more careful with how she handled her relationships with her staff, she would still be in the House and probably would have been reelected, although it would have been a relatively close margin.

Wrong again. Her mistake was to let her ex-hasband bully her.

What do you mean by "wrong again"? I don't recall any prior interaction with you-at least, not for a long time. And as TiltsAreUnderrated noted above, it was improper for Hill to engage in a relationship with a direct subordinate.

[Calthrina950]

Looks like he lost by 6.3%.

Trump carried his district by 11%.

As with Torres-Small in NM-02, Trump's double-digit winning margin in NY-11 was too much for Rose to overcome. And as I noted the other day, Cunningham, Horn, and McAdams all lost despite Biden coming within single digits in their districts.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1334524244324020226

It's clear at this point that the BLM protests/riots from over the summer had an effect on the election, almost as much as the pandemic itself-and they helped cost Rose and several other downballot Democrats reelection.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/millermeeks/status/1334692638566604800

Ocasio-Cortez seems to forget-or perhaps to ignore-that she's not the only member of Congress who comes from a working-class background. Yes, many of them went through the elite schools and many were born with a silver spoon in their mouths, but many others are small business owners or had to work to get where they are. In the Senate, Elizabeth Warren is an example of this.