Why is the race so close?

[Calthrina950]

Trump is doing the worst ever seen from an incumbent going for reelection.   I don't see how it could get much worse realistically.

If you mean by electoral performance, then this is certainly not the case. Herbert Hoover in 1932 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 both had as poor a standing in the polls as Trump has had, and both ended up losing by much more than he will (Hoover in the popular vote and Electoral College; Carter in the Electoral College). But if you mean from the perspective of how Trump has conducted himself in office, especially this year, then I would agree.

[Calthrina950]

Hoover got almost 40% of the vote in ‘32

That's so weird to think about. This was still while the South was voting 75% or higher for Democrats nationally, so Hoover was able to reach 40% with basically no votes from a populous region of the country while in the middle of the worst economic depression in the country's history.

Yep. In all honesty, even though Bush sported ratings in the 20’s in ‘08, I still think he would have breached 40% of the vote had he been able to run.

I'm not disturbed by Trump's head-to-head poll numbers because that is simply what happens for major party candidates in a presidential election.

People can cite 1936/1964/1972 but that was an era when American politics was unusually depolarized. Our current dynamic where people just reflexively vote for one party or the other based on their personal characteristics/background is a reversion to the mean of how politics worked for most of American history.

There will never be another landslide election where a candidate gets 60%+ of the national popular vote.

What does disturb me is Trump's consistent approval ratings. You can disapprove of someone but still vote for them because you disapprove of the other guy even more.

But the idea that Trump is basically guaranteed the approval of no more and no less than 40-45% of Americans no matter how good or bad things go is really damning of how broken our body politic is right now.

Ever since 2000 (and arguably since 1992), we've been in a sort of Second "Gilded Age", similar to the period between 1876 and 1896. During that time, the country saw nothing but close presidential elections, with two highly energized and partisan political bases "going at" each other for the opportunity to take direction of the country's fortunes. But I'm hopeful that this age of polarization isn't going to last forever, and I pray that your prediction that we'll never see a >60% landslide again doesn't bear fruit. If we don't, then that will be a truly sad indictment on our country, and perhaps a sign of its decline.