BLM riots delivering Minnesota to Trump?

[Calthrina950]

Worst first post ever.

Shame on you and all of the people here recommending this post. It's nonsense like this that reminds me of why I took my hiatus before. But at any rate, I don't think this is as ridiculous of a question as it sounds. In fact, serious scholars have produced work about the continuing effects which "law and order" rhetoric, white stereotypes and fears about minority crime, and the like have had on electoral outcomes. An example of such a study is here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ssqu.12622.

While I do not think that this particular story will sway Minnesota into the Trump column, and I expect for Biden to improve in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, this horrific incident does help to expose real and continuing issues with our criminal justice system, and the manner in which the opposing parties have reacted to these problems.

[Calthrina950]

Greatest part of this post is the 2 blue avatars who reco'd OP and the horde of 82 (currently) red and green avatars who recommended dingojoe's reply

That's the worst part of this thread, in my view. It saddens me that people are going to brigade in force upon a new poster, establishing from the beginning that they shall be as an outcast on this forum. And for what? A electoral question?

[Calthrina950]

Greatest part of this post is the 2 blue avatars who reco'd OP and the horde of 82 (currently) red and green avatars who recommended dingojoe's reply

That's the worst part of this thread, in my view. It saddens me that people are going to brigade in force upon a new poster, establishing from the beginning that they shall be as an outcast on this forum. And for what? A electoral question?

My point here still stands, even though it turns out that this particular user was a sockpuppet. I continue to be amazed by how cruel people on the Internet can be, knowing they will not face any direct consequences for their actions if they are shielded by a veil of anonymity.

[Calthrina950]

Greatest part of this post is the 2 blue avatars who reco'd OP and the horde of 82 (currently) red and green avatars who recommended dingojoe's reply

That's the worst part of this thread, in my view. It saddens me that people are going to brigade in force upon a new poster, establishing from the beginning that they shall be as an outcast on this forum. And for what? A electoral question?

My point here still stands, even though it turns out that this particular user was a sockpuppet. I continue to be amazed by how cruel people on the Internet can be, knowing they will not face any direct consequences for their actions if they are shielded by a veil of anonymity.

There are multiple items going on here (And without trying to create additional items for the Mod Team that might need to somehow try to separate the various items):

1.) We had a new Forum Member who on their very first thread created a "headline grabbing" item from the thread title, as well as attempting to associate urban unrest as a result of an apparent police murder of an unarmed Black Man, with the BLM Movement.

2.) Normally new posters tend to keep a relatively low profile initially, or specifically comment in threads where they feel they might have certain insights...

For example my first posts were regarding the 2008 Oregon DEM Primary results, where initially I posted quite a bit over the course of a few days and predicted a 58-42 Obama win (Actual results were 58.5%-40.5%):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=75032.msg1562517#msg1562517

3.) Although it is not unprecedented for a new poster to "jump into the fray" on HOT TOPIC issues, it's a bit rare to see that occur on a frequent basis, as most new users attempt to establish their "street cred" initially and do the whole "how to make friends and influence people", create social alliance networks, etc in what is after all a relatively tight knit internet forum with a relatively small number of total active users.

4.) It is true that perhaps once one gets to the *content* of the question (beyond the loaded language of BLM, etc...), regardless of what appeared to potentially be an ("initial dweller under a bridge trying to devour my local goats"), there is the broader discussion of the role of police brutality within communities of color.

5.) Personally, I will acknowledge and "man-up" that perhaps I didn't give the "new poster" a fair shake (Had it actually been a new poster).

Still, it is such an unusual pattern of behavior that fits the profile of the various socks & trolls, which had it been an established member of Atlas, regardless of partisan affiliation or ideology, would have been treated more seriously.

6.) That all aside, regardless of the Sock Account which has been shut down and the loaded language of "BLM Riots", sometimes massive unrest does create political opportunity structures for various political leaders, parties, etc....

7.) All that being said, I don't believe that we have conclusive evidence that urban unrest focused against police brutality benefits one political party or another, let alone if such issues are viewed through the prism of State Politics.

8.) If anything, one could make a strong argument, that the LA Uprising of 1992 helped push California solidly over the line into what ended up becoming a short period after a heavily Democratic State....

I agree with most of what you say here, and I certainly think that new posters should try to establish their reputation first before posting "controversial" material, as you would say. But I still don't think that the response of the Atlas community on here was appropriate, and it casts a black mark on the forum's reputation. But overall, as I've indicated above, I do not believe that the Floyd murder and the subsequent protests/riots are going to push Minnesota into the Republican column, or that they will yield substantive benefits for Trump. They may serve as additional reinforcement for his base's loyalties to him, but there will be no other effects, not ones that would make or break the election.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, I am wondering how come Bush did not seem to receive a boost from the riots in 92. Did he seem unable to handle them?

It's likely because the country imploding doesn't tend to help incumbents.  

This is why the analogy with Richard Nixon doesn't work. Nixon was a challenger, not an incumbent President. The actual incumbent President, Lyndon Johnson, did not run for reelection precisely because the country was at the verge of falling apart in 1968, with the assassinations of MLK and RFK, the disastrous Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the race riots, Vietnam, and the anti-war protests.

[Calthrina950]

I certainly think that these riots will have an impact on the election, though it's too early to say who will benefit (though I'm personally doubtful that Trump will) or to what extent. Coronavirus is undoubtedly going to have a larger effect, but I see coronavirus and these riots as being linked together. The riots probably would have happened regardless of coronavirus, but the turmoil of the past two months has certainly exacerbated them.

[Calthrina950]

I'm seeing more anger towards Trump and his lack of leadership. It's hard to do a "law and order" campaign when you are the "law and order."

If you guys think people will elect anyone who gives a voice to those destroying the cities, you're crazy.

They shouldn't have their voices heard. I was raised that spoiled children having tantrums don't get their way.

"Spoiled children having tantrums" is a really ed up and racist way to refer to black people asking cops to stop murdering them

You do realize that rioters have seriously injured numerous people already?  many of the victims not being cops at all.  I have yet to see a single Democratic politician denounce these acts of violence.  

This is stunning, and I am saying that someone who plans to vote for Joe Biden.  This board is becoming so far outside of the mainstream its insane.

You apparently filter your information through an incredibly narrow window, because I've seen tons of condemnation from Democrats regarding the violence.

The Mayor of Atlanta is an excellent example of this. Hers is the response that mayors throughout the country should be emulating.

[Calthrina950]

Not a bad question for a first-timer.

I'm going to guess you're young, white, and suburban. Please forgive me if I'm wrong.

Looking way back, I have little doubt that the "long hot summers" of the 1960s hurt Humphrey a bit in 1968, though the Vietnam War was also a big factor.

In the aftermath of the 1992 Rodney King LA riots, only 4% of respondents said they would help President Bush (41), with 10% saying they'd help Clinton and 9% saying they'd help Ross Perot.

Today is different. I have heard no one attempt to in any way nuance their condemnation of, much less condone, what that cop did to George Floyd. The conservative National Review roundly condemned the 4-day delay in arresting Derek Chauvin. Why none of the other 3 officers have been charged is beyond me.

Having said that, yes, those who were directly harmed by the MN looting, fires, etc. may be slightly
--slightly--more likely to vote Trump than before. But for most people, the optics do not favor Trump. He has called for more force against protesters--many of them peaceful. Many white youth and even law enforcement officers are joining the movement against police misconduct, which tends to hurt Trump's chances.

The only hope of Trump being helped overall is that people are secretly harboring ill will toward the protesters. But I think the number of those who would previously have voted Biden, and are now leaning Trump, is quite small.

I look forward to seeing you grow politically.

You missed the drama earlier in the thread. The user who asked this question was revealed to be a sockpuppet and was banned. But otherwise, your points are valid.

[Calthrina950]

Given that Minnesota was the only state where Biden experienced a statistically significant snapback we can say the answer was no.

And Maine and New Hampshire. Biden actually overperformed here relative to Obama.

Biden still wasn't able to match either of Obama's percentages or margins of victory in Maine, and lost several counties which Obama had carried-costing him ME-02 in the process. Maine could very well be a state that might flip to the Republicans in the near-future (i.e. within the next 20 years or so).