AZ-OHPI: Biden +7

[Calthrina950]

Biden is probably not up by this much, but at this point, it is clear that Trump is in serious jeopardy in Arizona, and is as likely (or possibly even more likely) to lose the state as he is to lose the three swing states in the Upper Midwest (WI, PA, and MI) that carried him into the White House last time. One has to keep in mind that although Trump won Arizona by a wider margin (4%) than he did those three states, his percentage of the vote in all four was fairly similar (around 47-48%).

[Calthrina950]

This is garbage polling because it doesn’t match my priors. I also don’t know or care that crosstabs have a much wider margin of error than a poll’s top-line, so I will nitpick them to death in a vain attempt to discredit the poll that I have already decided simply cannot be right because I don’t want it to be.

FTFY

I don't think it's wrong to say that Biden may be up in Arizona right now, but seven points seems like a stretch at this point. Not even Sinema won by that margin against McSally. Either way, Arizona will be heavily contested by both sides, and Democrats should not begin to take this state for granted.