AZ-OHPI: Biden +7

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, May 9-11, 600 LV

Biden 50
Trump 43

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm not willing to buy Biden at +7 or at 50 right now, but I could easily see him at 47 or 48 at this point.

For that matter, I'd shave a point or two off of Trump's numbers too.

So, I think the Arizona numbers are probably more like:

Biden 48
Trump 41

right now.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is garbage polling. According to this poll...

Biden does better among men than women, does better among older voters (55+) than younger voters, wins 12% of Republicans and 60% of independents. Completely ridiculous even for Arizona. Part of the reason why it's so bad is it's 51% college-educated when the 2018 electorate was only 37%.

[Annatar]

One thing that is intriguing is if you take the national polls and the state polls at face value, every state we have data for must be trending democratic more or less, which is impossible, there is a disconnect right now between the national polls and state polls.

As for this poll, the closest date of comparison we have is a OHPI poll done in June of 2016 which had Clinton up 47-42 on Trump, so right now, Biden is doing 2% better in this poll than Clinton was in June of 2016.

[Bidenworth2020]

One thing that is intriguing is if you take the national polls and the state polls at face value, every state we have data for must be trending democratic more or less, which is impossible, there is a disconnect right now between the national polls and state polls.

As for this poll, the closest date of comparison we have is a OHPI poll done in June of 2016 which had Clinton up 47-42 on Trump, so right now, Biden is doing 2% better in this poll than Clinton was in June of 2016.

He is also closer to 50%, though, and her lead in this poll fluctuated far more (5 point lead was her highest).

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I think this poll is garbage. The crosstabs are suspicious with Biden having a better showing among men than women. Biden probably leads in the state as we speak, but I doubt it's anywhere close to 7 pts. I'd say he'd win by around 2 if the election was held today. The #s of seniors are kind of suspicious as well, but we have seen some polls now having him leading among older voters, including the most recent CNN national poll.

Anyway, I'd be extremely nervous over AZ if I were in Trump HQ. There haven't been much AZ polls showing Trump in the lead at all since the campaign started last year. Additionally, Kelly is running a strong senate race, putting the GOP on full defense here. Trump must keep at very least one of AZ or WI, or he's toast.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not willing to buy Biden at +7 or at 50 right now, but I could easily see him at 47 or 48 at this point.

For that matter, I'd shave a point or two off of Trump's numbers too.

So, I think the Arizona numbers are probably more like:

Biden 48
Trump 41

right now.

Four and a half months before the Presidential election, Trump already needs more than 41% support to win any state, including Arizona. Instead of New Englanders and New Yorkers (maybe some Michiganders heading for Virginia, it is Californians moving to Arizona... and such people are taking their politics with them. Arizona demographics have obvious similarities to those of Colorado and Nevada, which must be ominous for the Republican party. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

You'd think with the senate race we could get some more high quality polling from this state. I guess we'll have to wait for Private Policy Polling to get around to it.

[psychprofessor]

ooof another swing state with Trump in the low 40's.

[wbrocks67]

Trump fav: 44/53 (-9)
Biden fav: 51/45 (+6)

[BlueSwan]

Looks like a suspect poll. But hey, it has Biden at +7, so I'll take it! :-D

[Calthrina950]

Biden is probably not up by this much, but at this point, it is clear that Trump is in serious jeopardy in Arizona, and is as likely (or possibly even more likely) to lose the state as he is to lose the three swing states in the Upper Midwest (WI, PA, and MI) that carried him into the White House last time. One has to keep in mind that although Trump won Arizona by a wider margin (4%) than he did those three states, his percentage of the vote in all four was fairly similar (around 47-48%).

[wbrocks67]

Arizona RCP average right now is Biden +4.

[ProudModerate2]

Arizona RCP average right now is Biden +4.

And that is believable.
Go Joe!

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Arizona President by OH Predictive Insights on 2020-05-11

Summary: D: 50%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alben Barkley]

This is garbage polling because it doesn’t match my priors. I also don’t know or care that crosstabs have a much wider margin of error than a poll’s top-line, so I will nitpick them to death in a vain attempt to discredit the poll that I have already decided simply cannot be right because I don’t want it to be.

FTFY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent winning AZ by 7 and Kelly isnt winning by 12

[Devils30]

AZ to the left of the nation is possible. Not to the left of the popular vote but left of PA and WI I can see.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well AZ is a tipping pt state in case WI goes to a recount, Ds are targeting it

[Calthrina950]

This is garbage polling because it doesn’t match my priors. I also don’t know or care that crosstabs have a much wider margin of error than a poll’s top-line, so I will nitpick them to death in a vain attempt to discredit the poll that I have already decided simply cannot be right because I don’t want it to be.

FTFY

I don't think it's wrong to say that Biden may be up in Arizona right now, but seven points seems like a stretch at this point. Not even Sinema won by that margin against McSally. Either way, Arizona will be heavily contested by both sides, and Democrats should not begin to take this state for granted.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why that one poster was mocked for saying that Biden needs AZ in order to win the election. It’s definitely not unreasonable to assume that WI/NC/GA/FL/TX are all less likely to flip than AZ, which means that AZ would be the tipping-point state for Biden in this scenario (assuming he’s already flipped PA + MI). You could also make a case that AZ isn’t even less likely to flip than PA and MI.

Either way, Biden certainly doesn’t have "many paths to 270" if he cannot flip a state like Arizona.

[Person Man]

Not sure why that one poster was mocked for saying that Biden needs AZ in order to win the election. It’s definitely not unreasonable to assume that WI/NC/GA/FL/TX are all less likely to flip than AZ, which means that AZ would be the tipping-point state for Biden in this scenario (assuming he’s already flipped PA + MI). You could also make a case that AZ isn’t even less likely to flip than PA and MI.

Either way, Biden certainly doesn’t have "many paths to 270" if he cannot flip a state like Arizona.

If Biden loses, the post mortem will be that Democrats need to do better in Arizona. Just like it was in 2004 in Colorado and Nevada on one hand and Ohio and Iowa on the other.

[SN2903]

Not realistic. Elections Guy nailed why this poll is junk.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Although the margins can be questionable,  Biden still leads and if WI goes to recount territory, AZ solidifies the EC college for Biden, Dems cannot give up on AZ. There is an automatic recount in WI, if it comes back inconclusive.

I know why SN doesnt believe this poll, due to fact if there is a recount in WI, Biden wins without WI, with AZ.

This poll isnt junk

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I need a PPP or a FOX poll before I'm going to believe this state is a 100% tossup let alone favors Biden. There are few states I trust less than AZ.