Chris Smith is a long-time incumbent congressman from New Jersey and is the only Republican to represent New Jersey in Congress. Can he be defeated in 2020 without a bizarre series of bad events that drag down the Republican brand or a scandal?
As has been said on here, Smith is safe in 2020. If he couldn't be toppled in 2018, then he won't lose anytime soon. Smith has always enjoyed a high level of crossover appeal, even though because of the wave environment and polarization, that appeal went down considerably in 2018, as he only matched Trump's 2016 performance in the district. Nevertheless, even while Lance and MacArthur were going down to defeat, and the districts of Frelinghuysen and LoBiondo flipped, he still won by double digits.
And given the ongoing Republican trends in South Jersey, I suspect LoBiondo's old seat will flip back to the Republicans in due course, possibly as soon as next year, and certainly in 2022 if it is a Democratic midterm, and Trump is out of office.
