Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[Calthrina950]

Enjoy.

What does this depict?

2020 with quintupled trends lol

I see. Judging by your map, Biden wins by the margin which we would have expected. He probably carries North Carolina here, in addition to all of the states which he actually did win. Trump certainly wins Florida (and by more than he did in reality), and Texas would be a pure tossup. I'm assuming Alaska would be a tossup as well, given the extent to which Biden improved there over Clinton.

[Calthrina950]

Enjoy.

What does this depict?

2020 with quintupled trends lol

I see. Judging by your map, Biden wins by the margin which we would have expected. He probably carries North Carolina here, in addition to all of the states which he actually did win. Trump certainly wins Florida (and by more than he did in reality), and Texas would be a pure tossup. I'm assuming Alaska would be a tossup as well, given the extent to which Biden improved there over Clinton.

Wait, sorry, I meant quintupled swings. Slip in verbage

That's fine. But are my guesses correct? Except that I see the North Carolina Black Belt is more Republican, so that could complicate matters there.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised map of the presidential election results by congressional district in the Ferguson Scenario. I recently calculated the results for the redrawn districts in North Carolina used this year. Thus, this map depicts the districts as they were used this year. As noted before, it very much resembles the 1964 presidential results map. Ferguson wins 370 districts and Pryor 65.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a new map I created. This is a map of the 2004 election by county, in the Ferguson Scenario. Incumbent Democratic President Al Gore wins reelection to a second term against Republican Senator Bob Smith and one particular businessman, who is the Reform Party nominee. Who is that businessman, and what would the state results map look like?

[Calthrina950]

Here's a new map I created. This is a map of the 2004 election by county, in the Ferguson Scenario. Incumbent Democratic President Al Gore wins reelection to a second term against Republican Senator Bob Smith and one particular businessman, who is the Reform Party nominee. Who is that businessman, and what would the state results map look like?

Is this the map? And I assume it's Trump based off the way you're describing. Unless it's a trick question…

The map is close, but not quite. And it is Trump, who is the stand-in for Ross Perot. The Ferguson Scenario, as I've noted before, is predicated off George H.W. Bush winning reelection easily in 1992.

[Calthrina950]

2024 as a 1912 redux:



Kamala Harris (Democratic-CA), 474 EV, 42% PV
Donald Trump (Patriot-FL), 58 EV, 27% PV
Mike Pence (Republican-IN), 6 EV, 23% PV
Nina Turner (Progressive-OH), 0 EV, 6% PV
Others, 0 EV, 2% PV

I like how you have Utah as the only Republican state, which is similar to 1912, in which it was one of only two states Taft won (along with Vermont).

[Calthrina950]

2020 United States Presidential Election

A county map of this would be very interesting to see.

[Calthrina950]

Here is a map of a new scenario I've devised. This is of an alternate 2020 election. Who are the candidates? What is the electoral and popular vote? What are the coalitions?

[Calthrina950]

Here is a map of a new scenario I've devised. This is of an alternate 2020 election. Who are the candidates? What is the electoral and popular vote? What are the coalitions?

This map is... weird. I am down for the challenge.

The Democrat is presumably a Mississippian... Jim Hood? The Republican would be someone like Mitt Romney I suppose.
The Republican wins the popular vote by something like 12 to 15 percentage points and carries every state save for Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
I can barely hazard any thoughts about the coalitions, if not that the Democrat runs a campaign laser-focused on the South and the Republican takes advantage of it to scoop up support everywhere else especially with moderate liberals in urban and suburban areas.

The Democrat is indeed Jim Hood. The Republican would be a certain Republican Governor, from the Northeast.

[Calthrina950]

Here is a map of a new scenario I've devised. This is of an alternate 2020 election. Who are the candidates? What is the electoral and popular vote? What are the coalitions?

This map is... weird. I am down for the challenge.

The Democrat is presumably a Mississippian... Jim Hood? The Republican would be someone like Mitt Romney I suppose.
The Republican wins the popular vote by something like 12 to 15 percentage points and carries every state save for Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
I can barely hazard any thoughts about the coalitions, if not that the Democrat runs a campaign laser-focused on the South and the Republican takes advantage of it to scoop up support everywhere else especially with moderate liberals in urban and suburban areas.

The Democrat is indeed Jim Hood. The Republican would be a certain Republican Governor, from the Northeast.

Phil??

Yes.

Jim Hood v Phil Scott makes this hypothetical a hard decision for me (for who to vote for). Who are the running mates?

Kander would be Hood's running mate. I'm still trying to make a definitive decision as to who would be Scott's running mate.

[Calthrina950]

Looks almost like the county map I made for Gary Johnson (R) vs. Hillary Clinton 2016 back when.

That's interesting. What was the scenario that you had for it?

[Calthrina950]

Jim Hood v Phil Scott makes this hypothetical a hard decision for me (for who to vote for). Who are the running mates?

I've actually made a definitive decision as to who would be Scott's running mate. I've settled upon Neel Kashkari, who ran for Governor of California in OTL 2014 and lost to Jerry Brown, who was reelected to his last term. Obviously, this is an alternate timeline, and it can help explain California's overwhelmingly strong support for Scott.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a map of the white vote by county in the Ferguson Scenario:

What would the map by state be? And what does this map reveal?

[Calthrina950]

I caught a mistake with my prior version of the congressional districts map, so here it is again:

Ferguson wins the white vote in ~251 congressional districts (57.70%), while Pryor wins it in 184 (42.30%). This closely correlates with the 52.6-47.2% spread of the white vote between Ferguson and Pryor. Pryor wins the white vote in 119 congressional districts carried by Ferguson. The most Republican white voters are those of the four Deep Southern States won by Pryor, Louisiana, Florida, and Central/Southern California. The most Democratic white voters are in New England (especially Massachusetts and Rhode Island), parts of Appalachia and the Upper Midwest, and the very liberal San Francisco Bay Area.

[Calthrina950]

How about the nonwhite vote?

I know how the nonwhite vote overall and by state goes, but I haven't calculated it, or attempted to calculate it, by county or congressional district. The maps I posted above are rough estimates.

[Calthrina950]

Here's another map which I've created. This map compares the 2016 election in the Ferguson Scenario with the OTL 1992 election, which I think my scenario most closely resembles:

As I've noted here, Ferguson wins 2,326 counties (74.01%) while Pryor carries 817 (25.99%). In the OTL 1992 election, George H.W. Bush carried 1,598 counties (50.84%), Bill Clinton carried 1,528 counties (48.61%), and Ross Perot carried 15 counties (0.47%), while two counties (0.06%) split evenly between two candidates. There have been some changes (and hence some discrepancies with the map). Broomfield, Colorado was not yet its own county in 1992, and the Valdez-Cordova Census Area has since been split into two.

For the purposes of this map, Broomfield is counted as a Clinton county and Valdez-Cordova's two constituent areas (Chugach and Cooper River) are counted as Bush counties. Ferguson wins 1,397 of Clinton's counties (91.43%), while Pryor carries 131 (8.57%). Most of the Pryor-Clinton counties are in the Border State of Missouri and the old Confederate South, scattered across Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Only three (Warrick County, Indiana, Cherokee County, Kansas, and Juneau County, Wisconsin) are located in antebellum free states or postbellum states. Given that Pryor runs stronger in most of the rural South than Bush did-especially in the Deep South, this isn't surprising.

Ferguson wins 913 of Bush's counties-a majority (57.13%)-while Pryor carries 685 (42.87%). Notably enough, Ferguson wins every Bush county in seven states-Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Notably enough, all 15 Ross Perot counties in Alaska, California, Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Nevada, and Texas vote for Ferguson. As for the two counties where two candidates tied in OTL 1992 (Ware County, Georgia and Morris County, Kansas), the ties being between Bush-Clinton and Bush-Perot, they split, with Ware County voting for Pryor and Morris County for Ferguson.

As for states, Ferguson wins every Clinton state except for Georgia, along with every Bush state except for Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina (and NE-03, which goes to Pryor). The Pryor percentages across most states strongly correlate with those Bush received, and Ferguson receives a higher percentage than Clinton in every state (and D.C.) except for Pryor's home state of Alabama. Pryor's percentage of the popular vote (38.78%) is only marginally higher than Bush's (37.45%), with Ferguson's percentage (61.05%) similar to the combined Clinton/Perot percentage (61.92%).

In both scenarios, Mississippi is the closest Republican win (Bush +0.19% over Clinton/Perot, Pryor +1.00% over Ferguson). New York, Illinois, West Virginia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont appear on the top ten lists for both Ferguson and Clinton, while Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska, Virginia, Utah, and Georgia appear on the top ten lists for both Pryor and Bush. Hence, the Ferguson coalition is similar in most respects to the Clinton coalition-greater racial polarization in the Deep South aside.

[Calthrina950]

Following upon my earlier post comparing the OTL 1992 election to the Ferguson Scenario, here's a map comparing the OTL 1996 election to that scenario:

In the OTL 1996 election, Bill Clinton carried 1,541 counties (49.03%) while Bob Dole carried 1,602 counties (50.97%). In contrast to the 1992 election, Ross Perot did not carry any counties with 12 of his 15 counties from 1992 going to Dole and 3 going to Clinton. There were no tied counties in 1996, also in contrast to 1992. As before, Broomfield is counted as a Clinton county and Chugach and Copper River are counted as Dole counties.

Ferguson wins 1,428 of Clinton's counties (92.67%), while Pryor carries 113 (7.33%). This is a very similar breakdown as that for the OTL 1992 election. Most of the Clinton-Pryor counties are in the South and Border States, concentrated in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. This is a reflection of Pryor's greater rural strength in the South compared to Dole. In antebellum free states and postbellum free states, there are only two Clinton-Pryor counties: Warwick County, Indiana, and Juneau County, Wisconsin, two of the same three from the previous election (Cherokee County, Kansas votes for both Dole and Pryor).

Ferguson wins 898 of Dole's counties (56.05%), a majority, while Pryor carries 704 (43.95%). Every Dole county in Alaska, Illinois, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York goes to Ferguson. In Dole's home state of Kansas, where he had a native-son boost that made it his second-best state in 1996, 58 counties are Dole-Ferguson counties (with Ferguson obviously winning the four Clinton counties of Atchison, Crawford, Douglas, and Wyandotte).

As for states, Ferguson wins every Clinton state, carrying all of them by double digits except for Florida (which is his second-closest win, after Idaho). He carries every Dole state except for the four in the Deep South (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) won by Pryor. The Pryor percentages correlate with the Dole percentages in most states aside from Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, and Utah (won by Ferguson) and Alabama (Pryor's home state, where he does more than 10% better than Dole). Ferguson receives a higher percentage than Clinton in every state bar Alabama, including in the other three won by Pryor (though only marginally so in Georgia and South Carolina).

Pryor's percentage of the overall popular vote (38.78%) is a few points lower than Dole's (40.72%), while Ferguson's percentage (61.05%) is significantly higher than Clinton's (49.23%). The third-party vote in the Ferguson Scenario (0.17%) is obviously much smaller than that of 1996 (10.05%). In both elections, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, Illinois, Vermont, and Connecticut are in the top ten for the Democrats, while Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi are in the top ten for Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

Here is a series of maps depicting the vote by racial group in the Ferguson Scenario:

White (53-47 Ferguson):

Black (95-5 Ferguson):

Hispanic (77-23 Ferguson):

Asian (76-24 Ferguson):

Other (69-31 Ferguson):

Non-White (85-15 Ferguson):

There are tables here of the Ferguson, Pryor, and Other vote by racial group in each state.

[Calthrina950]

Here is a series of maps depicting the vote by racial group in the Ferguson Scenario:

White (53-47 Ferguson):

Black (95-5 Ferguson):

Hispanic (77-23 Ferguson):

Asian (76-24 Ferguson):

Other (69-31 Ferguson):

Non-White (85-15 Ferguson):

There are tables here of the Ferguson, Pryor, and Other vote by racial group in each state.

In what state did Ferguson get the highest percentage of the Black vote?

Ferguson received 99% of the black vote in Rhode Island.

[Calthrina950]

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

[Calthrina950]

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

From the looks of things Pryor wins ~50% in VA-10, which is interesting. Although assuming the changes from the fact that Ferguson is presumably a populist I'm surprised he doesn't carry Butler County considering OTL it went 52% Romney and without the Trump shifts I'm surprised it doesn't go with. Then again Pryor is from Alabama and from the county maps I don't really see anything indicating it would be that far off from OTL (it looks like AL is something like 59-39). Also it looks like Ferguson cracked 45% in NE-03? Wow.

Pryor does win VA-10, Ferguson does break 45% in NE-03, and Alabama is 62-38% Pryor. Pryor holds up in the Deep South, which closely resembles Obama's two elections, and holds up in Florida, losing the state by only 2.30%. But elsewhere, the changes are more dramatic. As I recall, Pryor carries three congressional districts that Biden won last year (CA-48, VA-07, and VA-10).

[Calthrina950]

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

From the looks of things Pryor wins ~50% in VA-10, which is interesting. Although assuming the changes from the fact that Ferguson is presumably a populist I'm surprised he doesn't carry Butler County considering OTL it went 52% Romney and without the Trump shifts I'm surprised it doesn't go with. Then again Pryor is from Alabama and from the county maps I don't really see anything indicating it would be that far off from OTL (it looks like AL is something like 59-39). Also it looks like Ferguson cracked 45% in NE-03? Wow.

Pryor does win VA-10, Ferguson does break 45% in NE-03, and Alabama is 62-38% Pryor. Pryor holds up in the Deep South, which closely resembles Obama's two elections, and holds up in Florida, losing the state by only 2.30%. But elsewhere, the changes are more dramatic. As I recall, Pryor carries three congressional districts that Biden won last year (CA-48, VA-07, and VA-10).

I presume the objective of this project is if the increasing hyper-partisanship between the 80s and 2010s never occured?

Yes. I've been working on it for about two years now.

[Calthrina950]

Here is the final revised version of the Ferguson Scenario map by county:

Again, all counties are won by absolute majority, emulating the 1868 election, which is the last election to date in OTL where no counties were won with a plurality. The county breakdown is the same: 2,326 counties for Ferguson and 817 for Pryor.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised version of the results by congressional district map in the Ferguson Scenario:

I had to go through and recalculate the districts, as I found that many of my prior calculations were erroneous. They are all correct now, and I have them available in a Google spreadsheet, which can be found here. Ferguson wins 367 congressional districts (84.36%), while Pryor carries 68 congressional districts (15.64%). Ferguson wins every congressional district in 34 states, including in every New England state. The majority of Pryor's districts (52) are in the South. Outside of the South, Pryor carries 9 districts in California, two districts in Arizona and Indiana each, and one district each in Idaho and Nebraska, for a total of 15 non-southern districts. Pryor's best district outside of the South is CA-50 in the suburbs and exurbs of San Diego County, where he wins 60.25%-39.68%.

Ferguson carries the majority of congressional districts in every state that he wins except for Florida and Idaho. In Florida, he wins 13 congressional districts to Pryor's 14. In Idaho, Ferguson and Pryor each carry one congressional district. All seven at-large congressional districts vote for Ferguson, corresponding with their state votes. 434 of the 435 congressional districts are won with an absolute majority, resembling how every county and every state is won with an absolute majority. The sole exception to this is VA-05, where Ferguson beats Pryor by a mere 88 votes (49.84-49.82%). That is the closest congressional district in the country and Ferguson's closest win. Pryor's closest victory is in CA-45 (Orange County), where he beats Ferguson by 860 votes (50.10% to 49.84%).

Ferguson's four best districts are MI-13 (97.50%), NY-15 (96.70%), PA-03 (93.85%), and MI-14 (92.64%), all of which are majority-minority districts in Detroit, Philadelphia, and New York City. Pryor's four best districts are GA-09 (77.59%), AL-06 (72.50%), GA-14 (71.78%), and AL-04 (71.53%), all of which are predominantly rural or exurban districts in the Deep South. Comparing to the OTL 2016 election, Pryor wins five districts carried by Hillary Clinton (CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, and VA-10), while Ferguson wins 168 districts carried by Donald Trump. All of the Clinton-won districts elected Republicans at the House level in 2016 and flipped to the Democrats in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Pushing on, here's a map of the Presidential-House Winner by District, in the Ferguson Scenario:



As can be seen, 283 districts (65.05%) voted for both President Ferguson and a Democratic Representative. 84 districts (19.31%) split between President Ferguson and a Republican Representative. 55 districts (12.64%) voted for both Senator Pryor and a Republican Representative, while 13 districts (3.00%) split between Senator Pryor and a Democratic Representative. Ferguson thus won 96% of the Democratic-held House seats and 60% of the Republican-held House seats, while Pryor won 40% of the Republican-held House seats and 4% of the Democratic-held House Seats.

The most Democratic Republican congressional district carried by Ferguson is IL-10 (Lake County, northern suburbs of Cook County), which Ferguson won 64.85% to 35.15%. This was the district represented by Bob Dold in OTL at intervals between 2011 and 2017. The most Republican Democratic congressional district carried by Pryor is FL-02 in the Florida Panhandle, which Pryor wins 64.04% to 35.96%. In the Ferguson Scenario, as I've noted above, Republicans continue to do well in the suburbs and Blue or Yellow Dog Democrats still do well in rural areas.

There are fourteen congressional districts where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote that are won by Republicans at the House level. These are (in addition to IL-10), AZ-02 (Tuscon suburbs), CA-03 (Sacramento Valley), CA-09 (Stockton), CA-24 (Santa Barbara), CA-26 (Ventura), MD-06 (Western Maryland), MI-11 (Detroit suburbs), MO-02 (St. Louis suburbs), NY-21 (Northern New York), NY-24 (Rochester), PA-01 (Bucks), PA-07 (Allentown), and TX-21 (San Antonio-Austin suburbs).

Pryor receives more than 60% of the vote in two congressional districts won by Democrats-FL-02 (Florida Panhandle) and MS-04 (Gulf Coast). Again, these two districts would be held down by Blue Dog Democrats, congressmen who lost in the 2010 Tea Party wave in OTL but remain entrenched in TTL.