Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[Calthrina950]

And here's an additional map for the Ferguson Scenario. This map depicts Presidential Results vs. Senatorial Results in the 2016 election:

Blue states are states where President Ferguson outperformed the Democratic nominee; red states are those in which the Democratic nominee outperformed Ferguson. Out of 34 states having Senate contests in 2016, Ferguson ran ahead of the Democratic nominee in 22 (64.71%); the Democratic nominee ran ahead of him in 12 (35.29%). Ferguson outperforms all of the losing Democratic candidates; in Alaska and Pennsylvania, Republican incumbents Lisa Murkowski and Pat Toomey manage to win reelection despite Ferguson carrying their states with more than 60% of the vote. Republican Tom Campbell picks up an open seat in California, despite Ferguson winning the state with 65% of the vote. And in Kansas, Republican incumbent Jerry Moran wins reelection by 30 points (and with 62% of the vote), while Ferguson carries the state with 54% of the vote.

Both Ferguson and the Democratic nominee lose Alabama and Georgia; Ferguson gets 38% in Alabama (compared to Ron Crumpton's 26%) and 46% in Georgia (compared to Jim Barksdale's 32%). Ferguson's landslide wins in Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio (he wins all but Nevada with over 60% of the vote, and Nevada by 17%) carries Democratic nominees Tammy Duckworth, Jason Kander, Maggie Hassan, Catherine Cortez-Masto, and Zack Space over the finish line, and he also helps Jack Conway in Kentucky (winning that state with more than 60% also), and to a lesser extent, Jeff Jackson in North Carolina (carrying the state by 12% while Jackson beats David Walker by 7%).

As for Democratic nominees outperforming Ferguson, the most dramatic instances can be seen in New York (Chuck Schumer), Oklahoma (Brad Henry), Louisiana (John Kennedy), Florida (Jim Davis), Indiana (Evan Bayh), South Carolina (Jim Hodges), and Idaho (Walt Minnick), all of whom run ahead of Ferguson by at least 9%. Schumer, Henry, and Kennedy all win reelection with more than 70% of the vote, Davis, Bayh, and Minnick with more than 60%; Henry's 75.06% in Oklahoma constitutes a share 19% higher than Ferguson's 55.75%. In Louisiana, Florida, and Idaho, Democrats Kennedy, Davis, and Minnick win the white vote, which at the presidential level in those states goes to Pryor.

South Carolina's Jim Hodges, who obtains 55.05% in his bid for a third term, is the only Democratic Senator to win a state lost by Ferguson (of which there were only four in the Deep South; Alabama and Georgia of course, voted Republican for both President and Senate, and Mississippi, the fourth, did not have a Senate race this year). He wins over substantial chunks of rural and suburban white voters who lean R at the presidential level and voted for Pryor, though still losing the white vote to his Republican opponent Katie Arrington. Overall, Democrats win the Senate popular vote 56.4-43.4%, running behind Ferguson's nationwide total.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised map of the 2008 election in the Ferguson Scenario, this time utilizing the Wikipedia template:

By my calculation, Mitt Romney carries 2,574 counties, while Dennis Kucinich wins 570. Romney wins every county in nine states: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, and Vermont. He also wins all but two counties in Florida and Kansas. Kucinich wins every county in Rhode Island (and of course the District of Columbia). Kucinich would win nearly one hundred more counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and he would lose the popular vote by 12% compared to her 2% win.

He accomplishes this by winning many white rural counties in Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, among other states, that she lost, but loses many of the suburban and smaller urban counties she carried (i.e. the Collar Counties of Chicago and Philadelphia, Orange County, Fort Bend County, the Suburban Counties of Atlanta, Baltimore County, the Suburban Counties of Denver, San Diego County, Northern Virginia, etc.), thus explaining the difference between the two elections. Romney's best counties are concentrated in the Mormon Corridor, Nebraska, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Deep South.

[Calthrina950]

Here is a map of the 2012 election results by county in the Ferguson Scenario, utilizing the same Wikipedia template:

Henry Ferguson wins 1,665 counties in 2012, while Mitt Romney carries 1,479. Ferguson wins every county in three states: Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Rhode Island (in addition to the District of Columbia). He wins at least one county in every state (Romney wins all counties in Utah bar Carbon County, which he had carried in 2008, and as in 2008 (and in OTL 2012), Utah is his best state). Ferguson wins approximately 100 or so more counties than Bill Clinton in 1992/1996, and their county maps are very similar-with Ferguson winning more counties than Clinton in the Interior West, California, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Texas, and Kentucky, while Clinton carried more in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama (in most other states, they carried roughly the same number of counties). Ferguson outperforms Clinton's 1996 percentages in every state except for these three and South Carolina.

Ferguson also wins approximately 1,000 more counties than Barack Obama did in OTL 2012, losing two Obama states (Florida and Virginia), but carrying fourteen Romney states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia). Overall, Ferguson wins 38 states and D.C.; Romney 12, and beats Romney in the popular vote by 10%, making this election on par with those of Eisenhower 1952, Reagan 1980, and Clinton 1996.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised map of the 2008 election in the Ferguson Scenario, this time utilizing the Wikipedia template:

By my calculation, Mitt Romney carries 2,574 counties, while Dennis Kucinich wins 570. Romney wins every county in nine states: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, and Vermont. He also wins all but two counties in Florida and Kansas. Kucinich wins every county in Rhode Island (and of course the District of Columbia). Kucinich would win nearly one hundred more counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and he would lose the popular vote by 12% compared to her 2% win.

He accomplishes this by winning many white rural counties in Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, among other states, that she lost, but loses many of the suburban and smaller urban counties she carried (i.e. the Collar Counties of Chicago and Philadelphia, Orange County, Fort Bend County, the Suburban Counties of Atlanta, Baltimore County, the Suburban Counties of Denver, San Diego County, Northern Virginia, etc.), thus explaining the difference between the two elections. Romney's best counties are concentrated in the Mormon Corridor, Nebraska, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Deep South.

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

[Calthrina950]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

I see. Any thoughts about the corresponding 2012 map, posted below it, and the swings that take place? Or the white vote and Senatorial maps that I've posted?

[Calthrina950]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

I see. Any thoughts about the corresponding 2012 map, posted below it, and the swings that take place? Or the white vote and Senatorial maps that I've posted?

My thoughts on the 2012 map are:

Why is the White vote in Louisiana so less Republican than in the rest of the Deep South?
Whereas it is Florida outside of the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach area which seems to be as Republican as the Deep South.
Why did Ferguson beat Romney in real-life blood-red Collin, Denton, Montgomery counties in Texas but not in the Inland Empire?
What is Romney's best county? I would assume Franklin County, Idaho?

Do you have a swing map?

1) The Democrats would have residual strength among Catholic Cajuns in South Louisiana, who in RL trended heavily Republican from 2000 onwards. Louisiana is also the only Deep Southern State (and this is the definition that includes Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) won by Ferguson in 2012 and 2016. Hence, whites would be logically less Republican than in the neighboring states. Florida would be a Republican-leaning state in this scenario (Lean/Likely Republican in anything less then a landslide year for the Democrats), as the Republicans would have a powerful coalition of retirees, Hispanics, working-class and rural whites, and conservative-leaning Asians/Others. Whites in Florida would be less Republican than those in the Deep South, but still more Republican than in OTL.

2) Ferguson would have a considerable native-son boost in Texas, and Denton, Collin, and Montgomery Counties would react strongly to his candidacy. The Inland Empire would be closely divided as it is in OTL, but with Romney eking out plurality victories (Ferguson would receive "only" 58.39% in California, and Northern California's ancestral Democratic tendencies would still be very much a factor here).

3) You're correct. I have not calculated precise county results for either 2008 or 2012, but your guess would be a reasonable one. I have, as you know, calculated the precise results for the 2016 election.

4) Yes, I have a swing map of the states, but not of the counties. Here's that map:

Anything you notice about the swings? I have some county flip maps as well which I'll post later.

[Calthrina950]

4) Yes, I have a swing map of the states, but not of the counties. Here's that map:

Anything you notice about the swings? I have some county flip maps as well which I'll post later.

Some of the strongest swings are in unexpected places (Oregon, Kentucky. I am not really surprised by North Dakota as it has a tendency of trending against incumbents).
Rhode Island is the odd man out but that's obvious because in 2008 Romney destroyed Kucinich in all New England bar Rhodes so Ferguson had less to gain.
What surprises me the most is the comparatively little swing in Minnesota, especially given that Ferguson flipped an insane number of counties.

I was surprised by it as well, when I calculated these figures. And here's the next swing map, from the 2012 to the 2016 elections:

Anything noticeable about this map?

[Calthrina950]

I was surprised by it as well, when I calculated these figures. And here's the next swing map, from the 2012 to the 2016 elections:

Anything noticeable about this map?

California and New Mexico are interesting.
Maybe Democrats were already maxed out, or maybe Pryor has a secret appeal to Latinos.
Massachusetts and Rhode Island are of course hellholes for Pryor.
The fact that Pryor bleeds more support than in most other places in the Ancestrally Republican Belt like Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas is interesting. (Idaho and Utah have obviously to do with Romney's faith)

Pryor doesn't have a secret appeal to Hispanics-it's just that his decline is much more marginal in those states than elsewhere. Romney got 37.39% in California and 42.84% in New Mexico in 2012-Pryor receives 35.21% and 40.22%. Massachusetts swings heavily away from Pryor because Romney is no longer on the ballot-Romney of course, had performed better than his national average there in 2008, and in 2012, still managed a respectable 39.55% due to having been the state's Governor. You are correct about Idaho and Utah, where Ferguson gains 11% and 17% compared to 2012, and he flips those other three states, which Romney held in 2012.

In fact, the results tables for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:The_Empire_of_History/sandbox. You have the one for 2016 which I provided you already, earlier in this thread, but I don't think you've seen the ones for the other elections. That should make things clearer.

[Calthrina950]

Here's another map for the Ferguson Scenario. This map depicts the county flips from the 2008 to 2012 elections:

Henry Ferguson picks up 1,095 counties that Mitt Romney won in 2008, while Romney picks up just two Kucinich counties (Acadia and Vermilion Parishes, Louisiana). The universal swing of every state towards Ferguson is in evidence on this map. The county swing is comparable to those of 1964 and 1976, when Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter picked up 1,362 and 1,582 counties, respectively, in those years.

[Calthrina950]

Henry Ferguson picks up 1,095 counties that Mitt Romney won in 2008, while Romney picks up just two Kucinich counties (Acadia and Vermilion Parishes, Louisiana). The universal swing of every state towards Ferguson is in evidence on this map. The county swing is comparable to those of 1964 and 1976, when Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter picked up 1,362 and 1,582 counties, respectively, in those years.

What happened in those two parishes? Especially considering that Ferguson picked up several surronding ones?

I didn't think of anything in particular-but possibly somewhat of a Republican trend in Cajun Country.  The maps which I used for Louisiana happened to have different results in those parishes, and it makes since that there would be somewhere which would go against the national patterns.

[Calthrina950]

And here's the second county flip map from the Ferguson Scenario, depicting the flips which took place from 2012 to 2016:

692 counties that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 shift to President Ferguson. Once again, there is a near-universal swing towards the President, except for in Alabama, Pryor's home state, which is the only state that swings Republican. Alabama is one of only two states (alongside Hawaii) where Ferguson gains no counties, and the only one of the lower 48 where no counties change allegiances; Pryor improves his percentage over Romney by outperforming him in rural Northern Alabama, Shelby County, Mobile County, and in Madison County (Huntsville). Elsewhere, some of the heaviest Ferguson gains are recorded in rural New York and Pennsylvania (with Ferguson winning every county in the former state and all but four in the latter), and he also makes significant gains in the Romney states which he flips (Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming), with fewer in the swing state of Florida.

Ferguson picks up the lone Romney counties in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, turning those into all-county sweeps for the Democrats, and he gains all of the Romney counties in Alaska, New Jersey, and Illinois, producing the same effect in those states. Overall, Ferguson wins 2,352 counties in 2016, compared to 792 for William Pryor. This is more then the number of counties Johnson carried in 1964, but fewer then the number carried by every Republican since Richard Nixon (except for Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Bob Dole in 1996 in OTL). It is far more then the 490 Hillary Clinton won in OTL 2016. Ferguson wins all but three of Clinton's counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry Counties, Georgia) and the majority of Trump's counties.

[Calthrina950]

Which Democratic presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

Hillary Clinton 2016

Barack Obama 2012

Barack Obama 2008

Bill Clinton 1996

Bill Clinton 1992

Jimmy Carter 1976

Lyndon Johnson 1964

Franklin Roosevelt 1932

This is an interesting set of maps. Do you have any thoughts on the second county flips map which I posted?

[Calthrina950]

This is an interesting set of maps. Do you have any thoughts on the second county flips map which I posted?

Well, that one seems pretty standard. The huge glut of Yankee Republican counties in Pennsylvania/New York is the most interesting part, I imagine it is a Lyndon Johnson ripoff (where he incredibly flipped counties that had never gone D and won them by landslide margins, in that area).

I'd made a minor mistake with the map (coloring in San Diego County), but I've fixed it. Otherwise, that is a major similarity with 1964.

[Calthrina950]

Here's my latest map for the Ferguson Scenario. This map depicts which counties in 2016 were won by either Ferguson or Pryor by a margin of less than 5%. There are 442 such counties, of which 268 are won by Ferguson and 174 by Pryor. Among the notable counties where Ferguson wins by less than 5% are Orange and Kern Counties, California; Douglas County, Colorado; Volusia County, Florida; Henrico County, Virginia; Virginia Beach City, Virginia; Loudoun County, Virginia; Waukesha County, Wisconsin; Jefferson County, Alabama; and Anne Arundel County, Maryland.

Notable counties where Pryor wins by less than 5% include Tulsa County, Oklahoma; Madison County, Mississippi; Duval County, Florida; Johnson County, Kansas; and Delaware County, Ohio.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

For the sake of statistical purposes, what would the reverse be? Trump winning by Harding levels

It would be an absolute bloodbath for the Democrats, just like 1920 was (though on an even greater scale):

Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-60.35%-535 EV
Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-34.12%-3 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

Trump would win all 50 states, with Biden carrying only the District of Columbia. Biden almost certainly would do better than 64% there (again, this is a universal swing), and would probably get a share similar to that of George McGovern (who got 78% in DC against Richard Nixon). But otherwise, this is a good (and frightening) map. Trump would carry California, Hawaii, and Vermont with pluralities, similar to how Biden would carry Arkansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Utah with pluralities in the parallel scenario. In the Trump landslide scenario, Biden would be destroyed at Cox like proportions, but throughout the entire country, rather than just outside of the South.

[Calthrina950]

A further Ferguson Scenario map. This is what the 2016 election in that scenario would look like without the largest counties (in terms of population, not land size) of every state:

For the most part, the map would look similar to the actual map, which for reference is posted here again:

The idea for this map derives from this thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172538.0. In two states would the result be flipped. Ferguson would have lost Utah without Salt Lake County, 50.98-49.02%, and Florida without Miami-Dade County, 50.21-49.79%. Both Salt Lake and Miami-Dade Counties give more than 60% of the vote to Ferguson, clearly providing him with his margin of victory in their states. Without their largest counties, Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Nevada, South Dakota, and Tennessee would all still go for Ferguson, but would be within single digits. South Carolina, however, would be pushed into single-digit territory without its largest county (Greenville). Georgia would become a double-digit win for Pryor without Fulton County. Surprisingly, Ferguson would still win Idaho, Virginia, and Nebraska without their largest counties, and by virtually identical margins. Arizona would have been more than 60% Democratic without Maricopa County, while Washington and Delaware would slip under the 60% mark without King and New Castle Counties.

Overall, Ferguson wins the largest counties of 48 states; Pryor wins the largest counties in Kansas (Johnson) and South Carolina (Greenville). Both of those states are pushed leftwards when those counties are removed; Kansas becomes a double-digit win for Ferguson without Johnson.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

Would you happen to have the link for that universal swing calculator? It would be much appreciated.

I don't have a link to it, as the calculator is on an Excel spreadsheet. You could send Reagente a Personal Message and ask him to provide you with it.

[Calthrina950]

Former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) / Senator Kamala Devi Harris (Democratic, California) 413 electoral votes, 56% popular votes
President Michael Richard Pence (Republican, Indiana) / Vice President Nimrata Nikki Haley (Republican, South Carolina) 125 electoral votes, 41% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 3% popular votes

Montana and Kansas as the narrowest Republican wins, with Utah deep into the R. Interesting.

It's possible though that this map shows Biden getting into the upper 30s, which would still represent the best Democratic performance in Utah in many years.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a map which I created last week, showing the 2012 election results by county, for the Senatorial races in the Ferguson Scenario:

What would be the results by state here? Who would you guess would be the Senatorial incumbents or candidates here? Any instances of ticket-splitting between the Senatorial and Presidential races by state? For reference, this is the presidential election results map for that year:

[Calthrina950]

looks like:

Close, but for one state.

[Calthrina950]

looks like:

Close, but for one state.

The wrong state is New York?

Otherwise PA or MA.

It's actually NE.

[Calthrina950]

It's actually NE.

Crazy! Seeing Douglas, Lancaster and a bunch of others all in red fools easily.

It would definitely be close, within 3%. But which states split their ticket between President and Senate?

[Calthrina950]

It's actually NE.

Crazy! Seeing Douglas, Lancaster and a bunch of others all in red fools easily.

It would definitely be close, within 3%. But which states split their ticket between President and Senate?

Ehm we already know that as you posted the presidential map and now we have (or better Weatherboy has) guessed the Senate map.
So they are Hawaii, Indiana, Mississippi, Florida, Virginia, Maryland and New York (counting the two New England independents as Democratic-caucusing, as they are in real life).

It was a question I had asked in my initial post, so I was following up on it. And you are correct when you say that the two independents caucus with the Democratic Party, as they do in RL.

[Calthrina950]

Enjoy.

What does this depict?