2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Calthrina950]

Who will Gov Ducey appoint for Senate in the coming weeks and how many Democrats want to run for that seat in 2020?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/for-arizona-governor-mcsallys-star-dims-as-possible-choice-for-senate-seat/2018/12/13/866f6cc0-ff0c-11e8-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f9ae1125fe74

It would be advisable for Ducey to choose someone who is competent and qualified, but not controversial. That would rule out Arizona's congressional delegation (including McSally, who is still a Representative until January 3), and it would also rule out the McCains (on account of the controversy attached to them). If McSally were to be appointed, I think she would be in a precarious position in 2020. And it wouldn't be right to appoint her anyways, given how she just lost to Sinema.

[Calthrina950]

Congratulations Senator Gallego

Why Gallego and not mark Kelly?

Coz astronut lost

Gallego would probably be too progressive for Arizona. Someone more moderate like Greg Stanton would do better.

[Calthrina950]

Congratulations Senator Gallego

Why Gallego and not mark Kelly?

Coz astronut lost

Gallego would probably be too progressive for Arizona. Someone more moderate like Greg Stanton would do better.

Ideology hasn’t had a single ounce of effect on general elections so far, I doubt it starts to have one now

^^^^^^^^

I'm not the first one to say this about Stanton and Gallego. And I don't particularly care that much for what you guys have to say anymore.

[Calthrina950]

One thing more I would say is that Sinema's victory, in part, was due to her ability to draw from independents and more moderate Republican voters. The exit polls, I believe, indicated that she won ~10-12% of Republican voters, and got close to 60% among independents. Independents and Republican defectors were key to her victory; without them, she would have lost. By contrast, Garcia did badly with those two groups; hence, part of the reason why Ducey defeated him by 14%.

[Calthrina950]

The thing about states like Arizona and Colorado, though, is that a decent number of registered Republicans pretty vote straight-ticket Democrat now. Kind of the opposite of Appalachia. Sinema was always going to win more Republicans than McSally would Democrats.

Where did you derive your impression of this from Colorado? I've been under the assumption that unaffiliated voters (independents) fueled the Democratic statewide, congressional, and legislative successes in my home state this year.

[Calthrina950]

This was not a wise decision on Ducey's part. McSally just lost to Sinema last month, and 2018 showed that she is not a formidable campaigner. Given how closely she has associated herself with Trump in a state where he is generally unpopular, and one that is trending Democratic, I am not sure whether or not she will manage to hold the seat in 2020. And if she does, then she will have to run again in 2022 for the full term.

[Calthrina950]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

[Calthrina950]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

We have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Greg Stanton would probably be another. It has to be kept in mind that Sinema drew 12% of Republican voters and won independents by a wide margin. Any Democratic nominee facing McSally in 2020 must be able to have crossover appeal.

[Calthrina950]

Will Grant Woods back single payer? Will Grant Woods seek to break up the military industrial complex? Will Grant Woods fight to protect the rights of labor unions? Will Grant woods fight for environmental justice? Because those are things many Democrats in the senate won’t do, but Ruben Gallego would.

You’re not undestanding me: electing Grant Woods is keeping this seat in Republican hands, even if he has a D next to his name.

I do not want someone like Grant Woods to be welcome in this party.

I couldn't have said this better. Grant Woods is an oppurtunistic, right-wing Republican. He is not a Democrat and never will be. So-called “moderates” have no place in the Democratic Party and they will be the first ones selling out the working class to corporate interests. They are complacent in the destruction of our democracy. Anyone supporting Woods over Gallego should be ashamed of themselves.

People like you sometimes struggle to realize that not everyone thinks the same way you do.

This exactly. Ideological purism is not good for either party.

[Calthrina950]

How many Justice Democrats flipped a district, again?

None, but TBF to the group, they only had 1 candidate in a swing district(Eastman).

Who came closer than anyone expected after basically being forgotten by the national party.

My view on this debate is basically this:

If it looks like we're in a position to retake the Senate (say, flipping NC, ME, IA, CO, MT, etc.), then ideological purity in the caucus is something we should aspire to. If we're having a Democrat in the White House in January 2021, we want to be able to pass bold, progressive legislation, and avoid impasses like, say, the Obamacare differences inside the caucus. It's important to govern as a government party, and to enact policies that will accomplish our goals, something we will not do with a Senator who was a Republican for 2016. From a governing perspective, Gallego is better. If Woods looks like he's going to perform better than Gallego statewide, AND accomplishing a Senate majority looks difficult or impossible without AZ, then one could see the merits of nominating Woods, if for nothing else than having another vote for D leadership in the Senate during a potential Trump second term.

In an environment similar to 2018, all things considered, I'd support Gallego in a primary, because we're more in agreement ideologically. I would be open to some strategic voting if it looks like Gallego has no chance (something hard to believe considering the accomplishments of Beto and Abrams, for example.)

Their accomplishments? Both of them lost.

[Calthrina950]

Why are most people here so fixated upon Gallego?

[Calthrina950]

I understand why most of the posters here agree with Gallego. He is, in their eyes, the most viable option, and does represent the ever more progressive direction that the Democratic Party seems to be headed upon. At this rate, twenty years from now, to be a Democrat you will have to be staunchly pro-choice, in favor of universal healthcare and of a universal basic income, and staunchly pro-immigration, with no room for any sort of deviation or accommodation, or otherwise. And yes, the reverse seems to be coming true for the Republican Party as well. The ever widening gulf between the two parties continues to alarm me.

[Calthrina950]

Though I'm not in tune with all of Kelly's stances on gun control (though I also understand why he has them, given what happened to his wife), he appears more moderate than Gallego, and I hope that he wins the nomination.

[Calthrina950]

Daniel McCarthy challenging McSally in primary

McSally has enough problems already. A primary challenge would only weaken her position further against Kelly in the general election.

[Calthrina950]

Daniel McCarthy challenging McSally in primary

McSally has enough problems already. A primary challenge would only weaken her position further against Kelly in the general election.

Yes, and that's great. Arizona is a must.win for the Democrats, if they want to regain a majority and ditch Moscow Mitch.

I am no fan of McSally, who has proven herself to be an awful candidate, and has not been a particularly good Senator. So I wouldn't be saddened to see her lose.

[Calthrina950]

Simplest answer--She is an idiot.  It's a pretty common affliction in the GOP

Yeah because insulting tens of millions of people just because of their partisan affiliation is very clever, if there is a idiot here your are probably the one.

The really embarrassing part is that, as of my writing, that post has received fifteen likes. Cringeworthy.

Seventeen now. But this is Atlas, dominated by people who are ardent political partisans and personally despise those who don't agree with them ideologically.

[Calthrina950]

At least she's showing her true colors and dropping the charade of being "moderate" and "reasonable."

I said this elsewhere, but this very same reporter has a picture on his Twitter profile of himself with McSally's predecessor, the late John McCain. I find this to be ironic, and emblematic of the lows to which many Republicans have descended. McSally is desperately trying to rally Trumpists behind her, but in a state like Arizona, which is experiencing demographic change and is not the most friendly to Trump, that strategy isn't going to work. I'm actively rooting for Mark Kelly now.

[Calthrina950]

She is a politician.

She is trying to appeal to Trumpists.

She is a horrible candidate.

I really believe that Ducey appointed her as a sabotage, so when she loses to Mark Kelly in November, he runs for the Senate seat in 2022 or he tries to mold one of his confidantes to run.

She is DefSec material, not legislative material.

To the surprise of no one, the Republican base is reacting to McSally's comments in exactly the way I would have suspected. They despise the media, as we all know, and believe that their politicians have been "weak-willed" and overly submissive to it. So, in their eyes, calling Raju a "liberal hack" is a way to fight back against the elites, and to demonstrate that one is standing up "for the people." However, I doubt that independents will take too kindly to this gesture, and they hold the key to whether or not she wins reelection.

[Calthrina950]

McSally is currently on... Laura Ingraham's show.

Here's an article from right-leaning "media watchdog" Newsbusters, which includes a clip of McSally's appearance on the show: https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/aiden-jackson/2020/01/17/seething-mcsally-reporters-are-cahoots-democrats. She really is doubling down on her comments, and as you can tell from this article, the Republican base is eating them up.

[Calthrina950]

McSally is currently on... Laura Ingraham's show.

Here's an article from right-leaning "media watchdog" Newsbusters, which includes a clip of McSally's appearance on the show: https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/aiden-jackson/2020/01/17/seething-mcsally-reporters-are-cahoots-democrats. She really is doubling down on her comments, and as you can tell from this article, the Republican base is eating them up.

You have to be a frothing at the mouth Lunatic to get the deplorables whipped up.

I've been watching her interview with Ingraham, and they were just laughing over CNN and Raju. Now, I don't particularly care for CNN, but I'm not surprised that they would be angry at the insult to their colleague. Raju himself, however, has been at the receiving end of insults from politicians and other prominent figures before, and he seems to be taking it in stride, as I would expect him to. Reporters ought to know that they will encounter such nonsense and be prepared to deal with it.

[Calthrina950]

Ouch @ MAGA Martha

Mark Kelly (D) 51%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/

Wasn't this the poll that was the most favorable to McSally in 2018? If she's trailing this badly, then what does that tell us about her prospects? At this point, Arizona seems like it's almost a guaranteed flip for Democrats, like Colorado is. It is still early, and McSally could turn her fortunes around, but she has much work ahead of her.

[Calthrina950]

Even worse for MAGA Martha, Sinema's approval is sky-high. She has a 64/27 favorable right now.

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1252688672195072003

If Sinema maintains this, she will have no problems winning reelection next time, especially as Arizona will be more Democratic by then.

[Calthrina950]

The Republicans have really scrwered up on this race. McSally just lost a senate race, and yet they decided to appoint her to the vacant senate seat. AZ likes moderates and McSally isn't even trying or pertending to be a moderate like Collins. Democrats scored a strong recruit in Kelly, and he leads by 8 points in the rcp average, which is insane for a state where Ds are usually underestimated in the polling on election day. Some of those were decent polls, others seemed a bit strange, and Kelly will probably win by like 4 or so, but this should've been a tossup race, not a lean D race like most people are begginning to call it. Even Sabato, which usually doesn't like to call flips early on has already moved this race to lean D. McSally could still win if Trump does well in AZ, or if a scandal comes out about Kelly, but this race is begginning to look like more and more of a sure thing for Democrats by the day. McSally is clearly desperate to stir up media attention, and teh fact that she had to use her own campaign manager as an AZ citizen in one of her ads is just sad. Lean D for now, could very well move to likely D on election day. Sinema never lead McSally bu this mucg in the RCP average so I'm really curious to see how much Kelly wins by

McSally may not be exactly like Collins, but she IS a moderate, more so than the late John McCain. Her voting record is a bit closer to the center than McCain's was. Here are McSally's approval ratings from the American Conservative Union so far, starting from when she was in the House:
2015 - 58%
2016 - 72%
2017 - 85%
2018 - 84%
And her only full year in the Senate so far:
2019 - 68%

Be that as it may, I will call the race Tilt D.

Many of these ratings from these organizations can be weird or flawed, and don't always reflect teh characetr of the person. Caling CNN a liberal hack isn't a vote, but it shows how she views the otehr side. She's tying herself to Trump as much as possible, whereas McCain kept his distance from Trump. Being conservative isn't the same as being loyal to your party, or being a partisan. I would consider Manchin to be a conservative. Furthermore, according to the American Conservative Union, Boozman, Moran, McConnel, Graham, and Capito all have lower scores than her. Graham may have voted for both of Obama's SC picks but he comes off as being a huge Trump ally and a partisan and not moderate. Same can be said for McConnel. Voting records don't fully reflected a person's characeter or how they come off as.

Ironically enough, as you know, Graham was originally a Trump skeptic. He's had a complete turn in his viewpoints these past few years. And Martha McSally has turned herself into a staunch Trump ally, after previously being known (prior to 2017), as a moderate, pragmatic Republican.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/azdemparty/status/1296978269590495232?s=21

It's interesting how the Republican businesswoman interviewed in this segment, who looks to be about the same age as McSally, singles out this latest move on McSally's part as an "act of desperation." The latest poll we have from Arizona shows her trailing Mark Kelly by 19 points! Now, McSally is not going to lose by anywhere near that margin in the end, but it's clear that she's on the ropes. Her position is a perilous one, and Arizona voters seem poised to reject her a second time this November. She has consistently proven herself to be a terrible candidate.

[Calthrina950]

She's even worse in video form:

https://twitter.com/ErickFernandez/status/1313694801708056577?s=19
Also, 'Counterfeit Kelly' is trending but most of the mentions are folks completely grilling her. This is the most common type of mention I'm seeing:

https://twitter.com/literallils/status/1313669848480665600?s=19
I swear, we're gonna be looking at the Arizona GOP in 4 years and wondering why they can't be more like the Virginia GOP

Lord have Mercy! McSally doesn't sound any different from Gosar, Biggs, and Schweikert, who are some of the most extreme members of the House (especially Gosar). Nor does she sound different from other extremists such as King, Gohmert, Jordan, and Gaetz-to give a few names. She absolutely debased herself with this performance, and her resort to a childish insult such as "Counterfeit Kelly" was an act of desperation. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if McSally loses by double digits. She's certainly setting herself up for a humiliating defeat. John McCain is probably rolling in his grave at this.