Your early 2020 Senate rankings

[Calthrina950]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.

You're right, hes more unknown, boring, and (somehow) less charismatic than Cruz.

But Cornyn is a more entrenched incumbent than Cruz, and his very inoffensiveness is probably an advantage.

[Calthrina950]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.

You're right, hes more unknown, boring, and (somehow) less charismatic than Cruz.

But Cornyn is a more entrenched incumbent than Cruz, and his very inoffensiveness is probably an advantage.

Being there for a long time /=/ Entrenched. Cornyn is rather unknown in TX, with almost a consistent 30% not knowing who he is in every poll. He is also boring, old, and not really an energizer for Republicans like Cruz was. And while Cruz was neutral or positive with the public, most TX polls put Cornyn and negative approvals. And with Hispanic turnout back up for a presidential year, I would say Cornyn has a good chance of falling. Of course, this will all depend on what happens in 2020 and who the D candidate is.

We'll have to see. Cornyn is obviously not safe in 2020, but I believe that he is favored. O'Rourke would probably be the best challenger to him, but I'm not sure if that is going to happen.

[Calthrina950]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

Corey Stewart! lol

In all seriousness tho who was that one guy he narrowly beat by less than expected of a margin in the primary?

Nick Freitas. Yeah no, VA is just not even a purple state anymore and Trump will head the ticket, Warner is looking good for reelection.

I was saying Warner in case Gillepsie  jumps in. Some users think Cornyn is gonna lose. Julian Castro or no one is gonna jump in against Cornyn. Trump will win TX in a Presidential year by 15.

He did not win Texas by this margin in 2016. And this year's results make it clear that he will not do so in 2020. I still expect him to win the state, but I wouldn't be surprised if he only prevails by mid single digits.

[Calthrina950]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

What's wrong with ranking Michigan as Lean D? I can see the argument for Toss-Up, but I wouldn't say that Lean D is LOL-worthy, unless you're referring to NH being more likely to flip.

Yes, that’s exactly what I meant. Lean D is justifiable, but there’s really no way NH flips before MI, that VA is only "Likely" D, or that AR, KY, and WV are more winnable for Democrats than AK and MT. Period.

Okay, I think I can explain all of these pretty well
1. New Hampshire is always a razor thin election, even in Senate races, and it's not too hard to see a Republican pickup. Far easier, I think, than Michigan, as John James won't necessarily run.
2. Virginia is only likely D off the possibility of Warner running for President or Vice President, and Nick Frietas, who I think is the current Republican frontrunner, is a strong candidate for Virginia (like Ed Gillespie in his prime)
3. Tom Cotton is vulnerable, in my mind, to a small extent but a strong Democrat would have to capitalize on that
4. Mitch McConnell is definitely vulnerable, and I would rate this seat tilt R if it weren't a Presidential year
5. West Virginia is West Virginia, it's not hard at all to see a Trump/Democrat split there. It happened in 2016.
6. Steve Bullock will run for Senate but isn't a threat at all to Steve Daines
7. Who even could win in Alaska? I would actually expect an Independent or Libertarian pickup here long before I would think a Democrat could win this race.

I disagree with some of your points. New Hampshire isn't always close-Kelly Ayotte won in a landslide in 2010, and Judd Gregg did so in 2004. Shaheen is favored, and given how that state seems to be trending Democratic, I think she will win comfortably in 2020. However, it is no more than Likely Democratic. Virginia is Safe Democratic, regardless of whether or not Warner runs. Freitas may come as close as Gillepsie did in 2017, but not any more than that. He will most likely lose by low double digits.

Cotton is Safe Republican, period. Bredesen's loss this year proves that a Mike Beebe retread challenge would go down in flames, and besides him, there is no plausible challenger. I expect Cotton to win by at least 20 points. McConnell is also Safe. Democrats couldn't take him down in 2008. Why would they be able to do so now? West Virginia is also Safe Republican. Manchin only narrowly survived, and Moore-Capito is a much more popular incumbent than he is. She will win with over 60% of the vote.

Bullock has a chance in Montana, but I agree with you that Daines would be favored, and would win by double digits if Bullock does not challenge him. Finally, I consider Alaska to be Likely Republican, at the minimum. Begich just lost the gubernatorial race this year, and would be even more of a retread in 2020. I expect Sullivan to get challenges from Democratic, Libertarian, and independent candidates, which will only make it easier for him to prevail.