WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Calthrina950]

Joe Manchin is one sorry motherf***er. Congratulations on selling your soul to win an election.

What else would you have expected? At this point, it's pretty clear to me that the Democratic Party wants all of its candidates to be in step with every element of the national agenda. Such an agenda will not help them recover the ground that they have lost in places like West Virginia.

[Calthrina950]

Joe Manchin is one sorry motherf***er. Congratulations on selling your soul to win an election.

What else would you have expected? At this point, it's pretty clear to me that the Democratic Party wants all of its candidates to be in step with every element of the national agenda. Such an agenda will not help them recover the ground that they have lost in places like West Virginia.

Don't the Republicans do the same thing though, for the most part?

Yes they do. Ideological purism in both parties has become a serious problem.

[Calthrina950]

Joe Manchin is one sorry motherf***er. Congratulations on selling your soul to win an election.

What else would you have expected? At this point, it's pretty clear to me that the Democratic Party wants all of its candidates to be in step with every element of the national agenda. Such an agenda will not help them recover the ground that they have lost in places like West Virginia.

Then what is the point having a Democrat (vs letting a Republican win) if the end result vote is going to be the same almost 100% of the time?

This part isn't true. Manchin has voted about 60% of the time with Trump, far less than the >90% record of most Republicans. What I mean through my comments is that it is better to have a Senator who agrees with you some or half of the time, rather than one who rarely agrees with you at all. And many of the posters on this forum seem to desire no one but left-leaning partisans to be the ones making the decisions. Moreover, many of the posters here seem to think that writing off entire regions of the country "is a good thing". Republican partisans are guilty of these same kinds of errors, as well, as you can easily see if you go to conservative comment boards.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin will still win. He’s popular with several Trump voters. The Dems should focus more on Heitkamp.

Manchin is in the best position of all the Romney-state Democrats. He currently leads in the RCP average by 9.4 points. Heitkamp is behind by nearly the same margin (8.7 points), while McCaskill trails Hawley by less than 1 point, Donnelly leads by 2.5, and Tester is ahead by 3. At this point, I believe Heitkamp will lose. McCaskill and Donnelly each have a 50-50 shot of losing. Tester will probably survive. It's ironic that Manchin is doing better than the other four, given that West Virginia was Trump's best state, out of these.

[Calthrina950]

My view on Manchin is that he's better than a Republican. He's definitely better than the Republican that would be in the seat if Manchin wasn't. Because it's West Virginia we know they'd be a very Trumpy Republican. If Bredesen wins in Tennessee, that will be my view on him as well. Furthermore, from a broader view I do like the party having ideological diversity. Yes it can be annoying when it comes to close Senate votes, but I'm glad we haven't seen any 'more ideological pure' primary challenges in statewide races be successful among Democrats....yet. In my mind, the best Senators are the ones who do what they feel is best, especially when it may put their political future in jeopardy. I'm not saying Joe Manchin is this, it seems to me most of the positions he takes against the Democratic caucus are so he can stay politically viable in West Virginia. The fact the state that Trump received the highest percentage of votes in 2016 has a competitive Senate election two years later, while the most liberal state with a competitive Senate election is....what, Florida or Nevada?, says a lot about the ideological diversity of the two parties. (I for one, feel the hype over Menendez is much about nothing.)

Welcome to the forum, and I agree with you. A party with greater ideological diversity is a party that will be more successful in the long run.

[Calthrina950]

RCP moved WV Senate from Lean D to Likely D. Big mistake if you ask me, but they did it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

It actually makes sense, given the new poll that has Manchin up by 16. Next month, it's very possible that he, the Romney-state Democrat from the most Trump-supportive state (bar Wyoming), will win by double digits, at the same time that Heidi Heitkamp, from the second most Trump-supportive state, could lose by the same margin.

[Calthrina950]

Even as the polls have "tightened", they are still Manchin +5. Morrissey has not led a single legit poll. So the takes of him randomly pulling out a win are... dubious at best

I agree. And Morrisey has generally been stuck in the upper thirties to low forties throughout the year, meaning that a low double-digit victory for Manchin is still possible.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin and Ojeda rallying together in the southern coalfields (Logan County WV), seriously made my day!

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1058872280481173504

Ojeda looks set to lose at this point, but Manchin is still in a good position.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin and Ojeda rallying together in the southern coalfields (Logan County WV), seriously made my day!

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1058872280481173504

Ojeda looks set to lose at this point, but Manchin is still in a good position.

They are both on life support at this point imo.

I don't think Manchin is in as bad a position as you have thought (and continue to think), but there is still the possibility that Morrisey pulls off an upset victory. But given that Manchin has polled the best out of all the Romney-state Democrats, my gut feeling is that he will win yet again in three days. If he does, it will be his last term, and he will almost certainly be succeeded by a Republican in 2024.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin and Ojeda rallying together in the southern coalfields (Logan County WV), seriously made my day!

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1058872280481173504

Ojeda looks set to lose at this point, but Manchin is still in a good position.

They are both on life support at this point imo.

I don't think Manchin is in as bad a position as you have thought (and continue to think), but there is still the possibility that Morrisey pulls off an upset victory. But given that Manchin has polled the best out of all the Romney-state Democrats, my gut feeling is that he will win yet again in three days. If he does, it will be his last term, and he will almost certainly be succeeded by a Republican in 2024.

Fair enough, but do you think I deserve all the anger and hate directed towards me for holding that opinion?

No, of course not. I am actually surprised that Manchin has been doing as well as he has, given that West Virginia was Trump's best state in the country, bar Wyoming. And you aren't the only one who bears some skepticism about this race. Moreover, it is true that West Virginia hasn't been polled as extensively as other states, so we don't know for sure how Manchin is faring against Morrisey. But what we do have indicates that he will win on Tuesday, even if it turns out to be only a narrow victory.

[Calthrina950]

lol, you're all acting as if Manchin is more vulnerable than Heitkamp.

No, I rate ND as safe R and WV as a toss up.

Both ratings are a stretch. North Dakota is Likely Republican and West Virginia is Lean Democratic. While I think Morrrisey might actually come within single digits tomorrow, I don't think he will come within five points. He has been consistently stuck in the upper 30s to low 40s throughout most of the year, and Manchin has hovered at or above the 50% mark in most of the available polls. If Election Day truly does break for the Democrats, Manchin should be fine.

And while I do think Heitkamp will lose by at least high single, if not low double digits, her situation isn't exactly comparable to Blanche Lincoln's. Lincoln lost reelection in a year that was distinctly hostile to the Democratic Party, which this one is not. And polls in 2009 and 2010 apparently showed her as DOA from the beginning of the cycle.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin arguably has one of the weirdest maps of the night. It got the job done, but I was like wth is that?!

You are right. If I am correct, Morrisey won the majority of counties in West Virginia. Moreover, the facts that Manchin failed to get an absolute majority, and that the race ended up closer than most of the polls were predicting, clearly indicate that West Virginia is gone for Democrats in 2024. It's also clear that Manchin saved himself by voting for Kavanaugh; if he had voted no, Morrisey would have won narrowly. And if Jenkins had been the Republican nominee, Manchin would most surely have lost. Yet he survived, which is something Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill cannot say, and which Tester, depending upon how the rest of the vote count goes, may not be able to say.

[Calthrina950]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

Because Morrisey still got 46%, denied Manchin from receiving an absolute majority, and came within 3 points of victory. Manchin only barely survived, and would clearly have lost if he had voted against Kavanaugh.

[Calthrina950]

If we're being honest, Don Blankenship might have been able to win this by boosting turnout.

I actually don't think so. I believe Blankenship would have lost by about the same margin as Morrisey. But yes, this definitely proves that West Virginia is virtually gone for Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

Because Morrisey still got 46%, denied Manchin from receiving an absolute majority, and came within 3 points of victory. Manchin only barely survived, and would clearly have lost if he had voted against Kavanaugh.

So why assume that the guy who lost to this utter clown would have polled any better than said utter clown? Because he was a member of the House of Representatives? Not how things work. He was always a bad and overrated candidate.

You think Manchin would have defeated Jenkins? Yes, of course it would have been possible, but I still believe Jenkins would have had a better shot.

[Calthrina950]

I had a dream last night that I was watching Manchin and Morrissey debate. The first question was, “what do the letters DT stand for to you?” Morrissey said Donald Trump, Manchin said “dat thing” and then started breakdancing as the audience cheered.

In summation, this race is safe D.

Honestly this aged pretty well

Not really, Manchin survived by the skin of his teeth.

People need to apologize for mocking you over your concerns about Manchin. It was indeed close, and Jenkins probably would have beaten him.

[Calthrina950]

I had a dream last night that I was watching Manchin and Morrissey debate. The first question was, “what do the letters DT stand for to you?” Morrissey said Donald Trump, Manchin said “dat thing” and then started breakdancing as the audience cheered.

In summation, this race is safe D.

Honestly this aged pretty well

Not really, Manchin survived by the skin of his teeth.

People need to apologize for mocking you over your concerns about Manchin. It was indeed close, and Jenkins probably would have beaten him.

I know the state fairly well for never having even been there, starting in the spring, I researched WV for hours on end almost every day until the race was called for Manchin.

That is dedication. At least Manchin and Tester survived. It's unfortunate we can't say the same for Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Nelson.

[Calthrina950]

Fun fact, even though WV ranks last in the % of population over 25 with a college degree, Manchin swept the 9 top educated counties in the state, by a total of 40,000 votes meaning he lost the rest of the state by 20,000 votes.

Even in West Virginia, the national realignment we've been seeing took effect this year. Manchin did best in the most populated counties, while Morrisey got strong numbers in the most properly "rural" counties, and in the counties of coal country. If I recall correctly, Manchin carried McDowell County by only 0.1%, and he lost Logan County, which had been his best county in 2012. Manchin's best counties this year were Kanawha County, the state's most populous and home to its capital of Charleston, and Monongalia County, which I believe is where the University of West Virginia is based at Morgantown.

[Calthrina950]

Fun fact, even though WV ranks last in the % of population over 25 with a college degree, Manchin swept the 9 top educated counties in the state, by a total of 40,000 votes meaning he lost the rest of the state by 20,000 votes.

Even in West Virginia, the national realignment we've been seeing took effect this year. Manchin did best in the most populated counties, while Morrisey got strong numbers in the most properly "rural" counties, and in the counties of coal country. If I recall correctly, Manchin carried McDowell County by only 0.1%, and he lost Logan County, which had been his best county in 2012. Manchin's best counties this year were Kanawha County, the state's most populous and home to its capital of Charleston, and Monongalia County, which I believe is where the University of West Virginia is based at Morgantown.

It actually WVU (they're touchy about that for some reason).  Obviously, WV is part of the national trend.  It does hurt Joe's populist credentials relying on all those eggheads to win though.

My mistake, but my point holds. It still shocks me that Manchin failed to get an absolute majority and did worse than Tester. Nevertheless, he made it, unlike Heitkamp, who lost by 11 in a state just as Republican as West Virginia.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

That wouldn't be a wise move. He narrowly won reelection to the Senate, and I don't think he would win another statewide race after 2018. He should focus on serving out the remainder of his term. Democrats can't afford to lose his seat.

If he runs and loses, he still holds his seat. If he runs and wins, a special election is held in 2022.

Which Democrats would lose in a landslide, thus costing them that Senate seat two years earlier.

yeah, exactly. They either lose the senate seat two years earlier(with someone else in the seat who is not Joe Manchin, such as Ojeda), or they deal with Manchin for the 4 years.

Really, if the Ds have the senate by, say, 52-48, it would be a smarter move for Manchin to run for governor and then appoint someone for the two years.

Democrats will have a difficult time taking the Senate back in 2020. And 2018 should have proved that West Virginia is moving completely out of reach for the Democrats. Manchin would be well-advised to keep to his Senate seat.