How Many Counties Won by Loser

[Calthrina950]

I would love for this to be continued, even though it's been sixteen years. I may try to make my own contributions to this in due course.

[Calthrina950]

I'm reviving this again, in the hopes of spurring additional conversation. As I said before, I will try to make my own contributions to this.

[Calthrina950]

So pushing on, I'm going to look at the 2020 election. Joe Biden now has the record of having won the fewest counties of any presidential victor since before the Civil War. Biden carried 538 counties, while Donald Trump carried 2,574. As with every other Democratic presidential nominee since 1988, Biden carried every county in Hawaii, and like with every other Democratic presidential nominee since 1992, every county in Massachusetts.

Moreover, he also won every county in Rhode Island. Only Hillary Clinton in 2016 has failed to achieve this. Trump won every county in Oklahoma and West Virginia, continuing the Republican streaks in those states extending back to 2004 and 2012 respectively. Nevertheless, Biden came within 3,847 votes of ending these streaks in Oklahoma and Monongalia Counties.

Biden won the majority of counties in 10 states (including Alaska, the only state won by Trump where he did not win a majority of counties), Trump in 39. They tied in terms of counties carried in Maine. Biden's four best jurisdictions were Washington D.C. (92.15%), Vermont (66.09%), Massachusetts (65.60%), and Maryland (65.36%). Trump's four best were Wyoming (69.94%), West Virginia (68.62%), Oklahoma (65.37%), and North Dakota (65.11%).

[Calthrina950]

Two questions come up regarding the future of county voting in presidential elections:

1.) How much lower can winning Democrats get?

2.) What on Earth would it take for a Democrat to get a majority of counties ever again? A massive realignment between the parties? An utterly disgusting Ray Moore tier candidate from the GOP and/or a beloved Democratic personality? Climate change? A World War? An alien invasion?

It's also curious to see how many counties have stayed the same during major realignments, they are by far mostly GOP counties in the Plains and Unionist counties in the South.

1. I'm curious to know about this as well. Biden won a number of counties in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to say nothing of Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont, Black Belt counties throughout the South, and counties such as those in the Rio Grande Valley, that could very well go Republican in future elections. That has the potential to drive the Democratic totals down further. However, there are urban and suburban counties won by Trump (i.e. El Dorado and Placer Counties, California, Douglas and El Paso Counties, Colorado, Hamilton County, Indiana, Delaware County, Ohio, Oklahoma County, Oklahoma) that could go Democratic in the future as well. So we'll see which of the two prevails.

2. Probably a massive partisan realignment, which I can't envision happening anytime soon. I dwelled on this question myself in the past, and I remember RINO Tom scolding me for "not knowing better" and for not making blanket declarations. So who knows?

[Calthrina950]

Continuing on, I'll look at the 2016 election. Donald Trump's surprise victory over Hillary Clinton that year saw him winning more counties than any other Republican presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump won 2,622 counties, while Hillary Clinton carried 490. As in 2020, Trump won every county in Oklahoma and West Virginia, while Clinton won every county in Massachusetts and Hawaii. Clinton won the majority of counties in just eight states, while Trump did so in 42.

Trump's best states were Wyoming (68.17%), West Virginia (67.85%), Oklahoma (65.32%), and North Dakota (62.96%)-precisely the same as in 2020. Clinton's best states were D.C. (90.86%), Hawaii (62.22%), California (61.46%), and Maryland (60.33%). Clinton and Trump each carried seven states with a plurality.

[Calthrina950]

In the 2012 election, Barack Obama set the record for winning the fewest counties of any presidential victor (later to be surpassed by his own Vice President, Joe Biden, in 2020). Obama carried 693 counties, while Mitt Romney won 2,420. Romney flipped nearly 200 counties which Obama had carried in 2008, but Obama did flip several counties in the Black Belt, along with some other counties such as Chaffee County, Colorado, Richmond County, New York (Staten Island), and Woodbury County, Iowa. Romney won every county in Oklahoma, Utah, and West Virginia, while Obama won every county in Massachusetts, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

To date, 2012 is the last election in which a Republican has swept Utah-a consequence of Romney's "native son" effect there. 2012 is also the last election in which a Democrat has swept Vermont (as Essex County, which had gone for George W. Bush twice, went back to voting Republican in 2016 and 2020). 2012 is also the first election where a Republican swept West Virginia-a streak that has continued since.

Obama's four best states were the District of Columbia (90.91%), Hawaii (70.55%), Vermont (66.57%), and New York (63.35%). Romney's four best states were Utah (72.55%), Wyoming (68.64%), Oklahoma (66.77%), and Idaho (64.09%). 2012 is the last time Utah was the most Republican state.

[Calthrina950]

Pushing on yet further, I'm now going to look at the 2008 election. In 2008, Barack Obama won the most decisive victory for a presidential candidate of either party since Bill Clinton in 1996. Yet in doing so, Obama set a record for winning the fewest counties of any presidential victor (which he was to break in his 2012 reelection and which Joe Biden would break again in 2020). Obama carried 875 counties, while John McCain won 2,238 counties.

Obama won every county in New England, save for Piscataquis County, Maine, and also won every county in Hawaii. Overall, he won every county in six states. McCain won every county in Oklahoma. Obama also won a majority of counties in California, Delaware, Michigan, Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. 2008 is the last election to date in which a Democrat won any counties in West Virginia.

Obama flipped nearly 300 counties that George W. Bush had won in 2004, although McCain won several counties that John Kerry had won that year, primarily in Appalachia and the Deep South. Obama became the first Democrat ever to carry the Collar Counties of Chicago, such as DuPage, Kane, and McHenry Counties, against a Republican, and broke the Republican winning streak in Carroll County, Illinois, extending back to 1856. He was the first Democrat to win Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties, Colorado since 1964, and the first to win Loudoun and Prince William Counties since that year. There were numerous other counties where Obama broke Democratic losing streaks extending back to Lyndon Johnson or earlier.

Obama's four best states were the District of Columbia (92.46%), Hawaii (71.85%), Vermont (67.46%), and New York (62.88%). McCain's best states were Oklahoma (65.65%), Wyoming (64.78%), Utah (62.15%), and Idaho (61.21%). Obama had the best ever performance for a Democrat in D.C. and Vermont, and is the only presidential candidate of either party since Warren G. Harding in 1920 to receive more than 60% in Illinois. He also had the best Democratic performance in Joe Biden's home state, Delaware.