How Many Counties Won by Loser

[Ebowed]

Posting this for the statistics nuts like me:

Nixon won 1,848 counties in 1960.  John Kennedy, who won the election, won with 1,186 counties.  Almost every time a Democrat won an election from this point forward, the Republican won more counties (1964 being the big exception).

Lyndon Johnson, who recieved the largest amount of the popular vote out of all modern elections (61.05%), won 2,275 counties.  Goldwater won 826 (compare this to the meager six states he won nationwide).  Johnson won every county in Maine, Vermont (first time a Democrat won the state), Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York (ironically, Goldwater's running mate was from the state), New Jersey, Delaware, Alaska (only time the state has voted Democratic, though it was close in 1968), and Hawaii (and of course the District of Columbia).  Goldwater won every county in Mississippi.  (The 1964 election was one of only two elections where any state gave a candidate a higher percentage than the District of Columbia gave to the Democrat.  In both elections, the state that outdid the D.C. was Mississippi, giving 0.10% more to Goldwater than the D.C. gave to Johnson, and again in 1972 giving 0.10% more to Nixon than the D.C. gave to George McGovern.)

Richard Nixon won 1,849 counties in 1968 -- one more county than he had won in 1960!  Hubert Humphrey won 684; George Wallace 578.  The closest state was Missouri where Nixon won by 1.13%; Humphrey won 22 counties and Wallace 1 with all other counties obviously going to Nixon.  (In 2004, John Kerry won four counties in Missouri.)  My favorite statistic about this election is that both Humphrey and Wallace won more counties than John Kerry did in 2004!

Interestingly, and this became increasingly uncommon in later elections, the top five states where the Democrat did his best had higher percentages than the top five for the Republican.  Nixon's best state was Nebraska (59.82%); Humphrey did better than this in four states: District of Columbia, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Hawaii.  Wallace's best states were Alabama and Mississippi; obviously, no surprises there.  In Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, all of which Wallace won, Humphrey actually came in second place, making these the only three states where Richard Nixon recieved third place.

For comparison, Humphrey won West Virginia by 8.82%.  John Kerry lost it in 2004 by 12.86%.  That is a 21.68% towards the Republicans.  (On another side note, anytime Hubert Humphrey was on the ballot in West Virginia -- whether it be Vice Presidential Candidate (1964), Presidential Candidate (1968), or Democratic Nomination Candidate (1972), he'd win the election, the sole exception being the 1960 primary where John Kennedy won the primary and subsequently the Democratic nomination.)

The 1972 election was the biggest landslide, county-wise.  George McGovern won a humiliating 181 counties to Nixon's 2,980.  Even Walter Mondale (334 won) and Alf Landon (420 won) did better than that.

The interesting state in this election is Minnesota, which voted Democratic in every election 1960-2004, this year being the only exception.  Minnesota was McGovern's third best state, behind the District of Columbia and Massachusetts (the only two he won).  McGovern also did reasonably well (for a landslide loser) in Rhode Island (he lost Providence county with 49.87%) and South Dakota, his homestate.  He did not have a chance of winning pretty much any other states.

Nixon won like a 1920s Democrat would have in the Deep South, getting more than 70% of the vote in Florida, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, and Georgia.  Nixon's worst Southern state was Kentucky, where he won with 63.37%, followed by West Virginia, where he won with 63.61%.

John Kennedy began a Democratic trend in Hawaii that McGovern killed.  Kennedy won Hawaii over Nixon by a mere 115 votes, but Johnson and Humphrey carried the state with overwhelming victories.  But with George McGovern as the Democratic nominee, the trend went down the toilet (just like the Democrats' chance of winning against Nixon).  Nixon won the state with 62.48%, making him the only Republican to win it besides Ronald Reagan in 1984.

In Maryland, the homestate of McGovern's running mate R. Sargent Shriver (who was also the brother-in-law of John Kennedy), Shriver's homestate advantage was offset by the fact that Nixon's Vice President, Spiro Agnew, was also from Maryland.  Nixon won the state with 61.26%, winning all but one county.

To be continued

[Bugs]

Very interesting. 

[Rob]

Interesting. Keep up the good work.

[Ebowed]

1976 is complicated to analyze, because so many states just went opposite of how they had voted in the previous election.  For comparison, look at Georgia, homestate of Democrat Jimmy Carter.  In 1972, the state went 75.04% for Nixon.  Four years later it goes 32.96% on Nixon's successor, Gerald Ford.  The homestate advantage that Carter had has never been displayed to such a magnitude after the 1976 election.  The Democratic vote in the state went up 42.08%, thanks to a pardon by Ford and the homestate of Carter.  Truly amazing.

Of course, Carter won every Southern state except Oklahoma and Virginia, both of which were very close margins for Ford, and both where the victories for Ford were under 50% (i.e. third party candidates like Gene McCarthy could have played a role in reversing the vote from Carter to Ford).  McCarthy was also a problem in Oregon, where he got more than 3% of the vote.  Oregon was 1976's closest state: it went for Ford by less than 2,000 votes (0.17%)!

Carter's best states were all in the South.  After Georgia, there was Arkansas (66.94%), West Virginia (58.07%), and South Carolina (56.17%).  In the District of Columbia, Carter recieved 81.63%, which is better than McGovern did four years previously, though not by much.

To be continued

[Joe Republic]

Good work Ebowed.

[Beet]

Good work Ebowed.

Interestingly, Carter won counties in southern and central South Carolina that no Democrat since FDR had won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good work Ebowed.

Interestingly, Carter won counties in southern and central South Carolina that no Democrat since FDR had won.

He also won a couple of counties in several other southern states that no Democrat had ever won

[Rob]

Good work Ebowed.

Interestingly, Carter won counties in southern and central South Carolina that no Democrat since FDR had won.

He also won a couple of counties in several other southern states that no Democrat had ever won

Suprisingly, he carried Winston County, Alabama, which had gone Democratic only once since the Civil War: in 1932, when FDR carried it by a single vote. It's gone heavily for the GOP since.

[Calthrina950]

I would love for this to be continued, even though it's been sixteen years. I may try to make my own contributions to this in due course.

[Calthrina950]

I'm reviving this again, in the hopes of spurring additional conversation. As I said before, I will try to make my own contributions to this.

[Calthrina950]

So pushing on, I'm going to look at the 2020 election. Joe Biden now has the record of having won the fewest counties of any presidential victor since before the Civil War. Biden carried 538 counties, while Donald Trump carried 2,574. As with every other Democratic presidential nominee since 1988, Biden carried every county in Hawaii, and like with every other Democratic presidential nominee since 1992, every county in Massachusetts.

Moreover, he also won every county in Rhode Island. Only Hillary Clinton in 2016 has failed to achieve this. Trump won every county in Oklahoma and West Virginia, continuing the Republican streaks in those states extending back to 2004 and 2012 respectively. Nevertheless, Biden came within 3,847 votes of ending these streaks in Oklahoma and Monongalia Counties.

Biden won the majority of counties in 10 states (including Alaska, the only state won by Trump where he did not win a majority of counties), Trump in 39. They tied in terms of counties carried in Maine. Biden's four best jurisdictions were Washington D.C. (92.15%), Vermont (66.09%), Massachusetts (65.60%), and Maryland (65.36%). Trump's four best were Wyoming (69.94%), West Virginia (68.62%), Oklahoma (65.37%), and North Dakota (65.11%).

[One Term Floridian]

Two questions come up regarding the future of county voting in presidential elections:

1.) How much lower can winning Democrats get?

2.) What on Earth would it take for a Democrat to get a majority of counties ever again? A massive realignment between the parties? An utterly disgusting Ray Moore tier candidate from the GOP and/or a beloved Democratic personality? Climate change? A World War? An alien invasion?

It's also curious to see how many counties have stayed the same during major realignments, they are by far mostly GOP counties in the Plains and Unionist counties in the South.

[Calthrina950]

Two questions come up regarding the future of county voting in presidential elections:

1.) How much lower can winning Democrats get?

2.) What on Earth would it take for a Democrat to get a majority of counties ever again? A massive realignment between the parties? An utterly disgusting Ray Moore tier candidate from the GOP and/or a beloved Democratic personality? Climate change? A World War? An alien invasion?

It's also curious to see how many counties have stayed the same during major realignments, they are by far mostly GOP counties in the Plains and Unionist counties in the South.

1. I'm curious to know about this as well. Biden won a number of counties in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to say nothing of Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont, Black Belt counties throughout the South, and counties such as those in the Rio Grande Valley, that could very well go Republican in future elections. That has the potential to drive the Democratic totals down further. However, there are urban and suburban counties won by Trump (i.e. El Dorado and Placer Counties, California, Douglas and El Paso Counties, Colorado, Hamilton County, Indiana, Delaware County, Ohio, Oklahoma County, Oklahoma) that could go Democratic in the future as well. So we'll see which of the two prevails.

2. Probably a massive partisan realignment, which I can't envision happening anytime soon. I dwelled on this question myself in the past, and I remember RINO Tom scolding me for "not knowing better" and for not making blanket declarations. So who knows?

[Calthrina950]

Continuing on, I'll look at the 2016 election. Donald Trump's surprise victory over Hillary Clinton that year saw him winning more counties than any other Republican presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump won 2,622 counties, while Hillary Clinton carried 490. As in 2020, Trump won every county in Oklahoma and West Virginia, while Clinton won every county in Massachusetts and Hawaii. Clinton won the majority of counties in just eight states, while Trump did so in 42.

Trump's best states were Wyoming (68.17%), West Virginia (67.85%), Oklahoma (65.32%), and North Dakota (62.96%)-precisely the same as in 2020. Clinton's best states were D.C. (90.86%), Hawaii (62.22%), California (61.46%), and Maryland (60.33%). Clinton and Trump each carried seven states with a plurality.

[Calthrina950]

In the 2012 election, Barack Obama set the record for winning the fewest counties of any presidential victor (later to be surpassed by his own Vice President, Joe Biden, in 2020). Obama carried 693 counties, while Mitt Romney won 2,420. Romney flipped nearly 200 counties which Obama had carried in 2008, but Obama did flip several counties in the Black Belt, along with some other counties such as Chaffee County, Colorado, Richmond County, New York (Staten Island), and Woodbury County, Iowa. Romney won every county in Oklahoma, Utah, and West Virginia, while Obama won every county in Massachusetts, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

To date, 2012 is the last election in which a Republican has swept Utah-a consequence of Romney's "native son" effect there. 2012 is also the last election in which a Democrat has swept Vermont (as Essex County, which had gone for George W. Bush twice, went back to voting Republican in 2016 and 2020). 2012 is also the first election where a Republican swept West Virginia-a streak that has continued since.

Obama's four best states were the District of Columbia (90.91%), Hawaii (70.55%), Vermont (66.57%), and New York (63.35%). Romney's four best states were Utah (72.55%), Wyoming (68.64%), Oklahoma (66.77%), and Idaho (64.09%). 2012 is the last time Utah was the most Republican state.

[Calthrina950]

Pushing on yet further, I'm now going to look at the 2008 election. In 2008, Barack Obama won the most decisive victory for a presidential candidate of either party since Bill Clinton in 1996. Yet in doing so, Obama set a record for winning the fewest counties of any presidential victor (which he was to break in his 2012 reelection and which Joe Biden would break again in 2020). Obama carried 875 counties, while John McCain won 2,238 counties.

Obama won every county in New England, save for Piscataquis County, Maine, and also won every county in Hawaii. Overall, he won every county in six states. McCain won every county in Oklahoma. Obama also won a majority of counties in California, Delaware, Michigan, Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. 2008 is the last election to date in which a Democrat won any counties in West Virginia.

Obama flipped nearly 300 counties that George W. Bush had won in 2004, although McCain won several counties that John Kerry had won that year, primarily in Appalachia and the Deep South. Obama became the first Democrat ever to carry the Collar Counties of Chicago, such as DuPage, Kane, and McHenry Counties, against a Republican, and broke the Republican winning streak in Carroll County, Illinois, extending back to 1856. He was the first Democrat to win Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties, Colorado since 1964, and the first to win Loudoun and Prince William Counties since that year. There were numerous other counties where Obama broke Democratic losing streaks extending back to Lyndon Johnson or earlier.

Obama's four best states were the District of Columbia (92.46%), Hawaii (71.85%), Vermont (67.46%), and New York (62.88%). McCain's best states were Oklahoma (65.65%), Wyoming (64.78%), Utah (62.15%), and Idaho (61.21%). Obama had the best ever performance for a Democrat in D.C. and Vermont, and is the only presidential candidate of either party since Warren G. Harding in 1920 to receive more than 60% in Illinois. He also had the best Democratic performance in Joe Biden's home state, Delaware.