Alberta election 2023

[Bacon King]

lots of absurdly close seats right now in Calgary


Cross: UCP leads by 310 votes (3.3% margin)
North West: UCP leads by 267 votes (1.2% margin)
Glenmore: UCP leads by 146 votes (1.1% margin)
North: UCP leads by 132 votes (1.2% margin)
Bow: UCP leads by 103 votes (0.8% margin)
Acadia: UCP leads by 57 votes (0.3% margin)

Edgemont: NDP leads by 103 votes (0.4% margin)
Foothills: NDP leads by 270 votes (1.4% margin)
Beddington: NDP leads by 539 votes (2.9% margin)
Elbow: NDP leads by 767 votes (4.2% margin)

(edit: also worth mentioning Calgary East where UCP leads by 467 votes (6.2% margin) but as you can tell from that large margin for such a small number of votes there's still a lot of stuff out)




Banff Kananaskis  close too where UCP leads by 208 votes (1.0% margin)

[Bacon King]

Banff Kananaskis  close too where UCP leads by 208 votes (1.0% margin)

and now NDP leads by 324 votes (1.4% margin) with 26/26 polls reported. Notably, Rachel Notley did not even once visit this seat during the campaign

[Bacon King]

I confess I'm only looking at CBC results so I don't know what the remaining votes might look like but the current seat totals are

UCP 43 Elected + 7 leading
NDP 29 Elected + 8 leading

and amazingly all 7 of those "UCP leading" seats are close enough right now that NDP could take the lead in any of them

note that I'm NOT saying "HERES HOW NOTLEY CAN STILL WIN" because it's unlikely the last votes in ALL these seats will swing the same way, but an insanely small UCP majority (like literally just 45/87 or something) is not out of the question

[Bacon King]

all seats left to call with current margin and number of polls reported


in Calgary

Acadia 18/18 UCP leads by 119 votes (0.5% margin)
Beddington 14/14 NDP leads by 509 votes (2.5% margin)
Bow 17/19 UCP leads by 655 votes (2.7% margin)
Cross 16/16 UCP leads by 534 votes (3.5% margin)
East 16/18 UCP leads by 647 votes (5.1% margin)
Edgemont 18/18 NDP leads by 270 votes (1.2% margin)
Elbow 18/21 NDP leads by 999 votes (4.9% margin)
Foothills 18/19 NDP leads by 216 votes (1.0% margin)
Glenmore 21/22 UCP leads by 99 votes (0.4% margin)
North 11/14 UCP leads by 75 votes (0.6% margin)
North-West: 15/16 UCP leads by 233 votes (1.0% margin)

non Calgary:

Banff-Kananananann: 26/26 NDP leads by 244 votes (1.1% margin)
Lethbridge East: 28/30 UCP leads by 729 votes (3.4% margin)

[Bacon King]

all seats left to call with current margin and number of polls reported


in Calgary

Acadia 18/18 UCP leads by 119 votes (0.5% margin)
Beddington 14/14 NDP leads by 509 votes (2.5% margin)
Bow 17/19 UCP leads by 655 votes (2.7% margin)
Cross 16/16 UCP leads by 534 votes (3.5% margin)
East 16/18 UCP leads by 647 votes (5.1% margin)
Edgemont 18/18 NDP leads by 270 votes (1.2% margin)
Elbow 18/21 NDP leads by 999 votes (4.9% margin)
Foothills 18/19 NDP leads by 216 votes (1.0% margin)
Glenmore 21/22 UCP leads by 99 votes (0.4% margin)
North 11/14 UCP leads by 75 votes (0.6% margin)
North-West: 15/16 UCP leads by 233 votes (1.0% margin)

non Calgary:

Banff-Kananananann: 26/26 NDP leads by 244 votes (1.1% margin)
Lethbridge East: 28/30 UCP leads by 729 votes (3.4% margin)

also there are definitely still early votes left uncounted because i'm seeing steady incremental movement even in these seats with all polls reporting

[Bacon King]

also there are definitely still early votes left uncounted because i'm seeing steady incremental movement even in these seats with all polls reporting

examples: NDP lead in Banff now down to 209 and UCP lead in Calgary-Acadia down to 55

[Bacon King]

Those are 'voting places' reporting on the Elections Alberta site, and not polling stations. There are frequently multiple polls at a 'voting place.'

In 2019, there were 1,906,366 total ballots cast (including spoiled ballots.) Right now the total count is around 1.725 million including spoiled ballots. So, total votes will likely fall just short of 2019.

haha thanks i'm not sure if the CBC site is misleading or if I'm somehow so dense that I never managed to pick up on this distinction in the 17 years I've been following Canadian elections

regardless it sounds like I should probably switch over to using the Elections Alberta site