Chinese police plan to board ships in disputed seas

[Bacon King]

I'm a bit perplexed here.

My first thought is that this is some new senior official's attempt to appease hard liners that'll be called off as soon as it becomes an international problem.

However, this could also be some sort of more serious diplomatic ploy. Perhaps China is intentionally being caustic because they do want the other nations to unify here. Then China can negotiate with a united opposition and get everyone's claims squared away and mutually recognized. I've always figured China's claims were so deep because they were basically China's "initial offer" in the inevitable negotiation. In the end, they'll gladly walk away with a reduced territory as long as it's internationally acknowledged and still gives them good access to the oil fields, which is far more than China would have reasonably gotten if they had stuck to existing international maritime law in the first place.

China is posturing aggressively, yes, but they know better than to press this too far because they have a good bit of money invested in the economies of all the other nations involved. They don't definitely don't want open conflict here. And, even if they did want to push this into a war for a full territory grab, the Chinese military has about another decade of upgrades before it'd be capable of such a major action.

[Bacon King]

Thanks for ignoring my EffortPost guys

[Bacon King]

I've always figured China's claims were so deep because they were basically China's "initial offer" in the inevitable negotiation. In the end, they'll gladly walk away with a reduced territory as long as it's internationally acknowledged and still gives them good access to the oil fields, which is far more than China would have reasonably gotten if they had stuck to existing international maritime law in the first place.

It ought to be in China's best interest to settle some claims just so excavation of the islands' natural resources can begin. There are definitely forces in the government who thinks that, but there are also people who think by the time China desperately needs the new energy the military would be modernized enough to take that on.

Your explanation is attractive, though I would say China is not energy starved enough to seriously consider an invasion yet. The military's obsession with the islands is also pathological, because it wants to prove to the world that China can secure its borders.

Of course, but much of China's current foreign policy is geared towards securing the resources it knows it'll need in the future. See, for example, the ports and pipelines transportation links China has funded throughout the region to give it better access to the Middle East (I learned under the name of the "string of pearls" strategy); securing the islands in the South China Seas is another part of that strategy.

It's also worth noting that, IIRC, it takes about a decade from initial exploration for offshore oil to be fully exploitable. By the time China has the military capability to secure this area, they'll already be needing the resources but still won't have them for years.

I agree much of this is propaganda, but I also think China would prefer to diplomatically secure as much as they can right now.

The problem is, it's difficult to know what China actually plans to do because its politics are so opaque.

That's what makes China so interesting! Even the best analyses are little more than well-educated guesswork.