I've only seen one poll that had Carmona leading, and that same poll had Obama leading in Arizona by two points. There is no way Obama is carrying Arizona.
PPP had a poll showing Carmona up by two points and there has been a clear and consistent trend in this race. Notably, Carmona's ahead by two points while Obama's down by nine. Carmona has a wide lead of both moderates and independents (a majority of both, even!). Regarding the Hispanic vote, the demographics of the poll are virtually identical to 2008 exit polls, fwiw.
