Peruvian elections 2011

[Bacon King]

The first round is on Sunday btw.

A little bit about the candidates-

Alejandro Toledo:
-former President (2001-2006)
-First VP is Carlos Bruce, who was in his cabinet last time.
-running largely on his past experience
-only candidate to make LGBT rights a campaign issue

Keiko Fujimori:
-daughter of former three-term President Alberto Fujimori, who's currently in prison for his ties to anti-guerrilla death squads but is still pretty popular in Peru
-was First Lady of Peru for six years, after her dad divorced her mom after she started criticizing his regime's corruption
-her campaign's major issues are poverty, equality, and crime
-refuses to state if she'll pardon her father

Luis Castañeda Lossio:
-Former Mayor of Lima (2003-2010)
-campaign planks: equality, economy, reform
-considered to be a pretty popular figure in the country

Ollanta Humala:
-former Colonel; led a small revolt against Fujimori but was later pardoned
-got 47.5% in the second round of the 2006 Presidential election
-anti neoliberal platform
-considered by opponents to be a Chavez puppet

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
-former Prime Minister, also former Energy and Finance minister
-campaigning on sound economic management and eliminating poverty

[Bacon King]

There have been seven polls so far this month, each by a different pollster. Here's each candidate's spread among the polls:

Fujimori: 16.4%-20.5%
Humala: 21.4%-28.7%
Toledo: 16.7%-22.0%
Castaneda: 10.1%-14.0%
Kuczynski: 15.6%-18.5%

One pollster (Datum) has a Humala-Kuczynski runoff, two pollsters (Ipsos and Datum) have a Humala-Fujimori runoff, and four pollsters (IOP, IMA, Imasen, CPI) have a Humala-Toledo runoff. I have no idea how good any of these pollsters are.

[Bacon King]

Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

[Bacon King]

The election's tomorrow. Polls aren't allowed to be published in the last week before the election in Peru, but that hasn't stopped three private polls from being leaked in areas outside of Peruvian jurisdiction.

All three show a Humala-Fujimori runoff, and show Kuczynski within striking distance to overtake Fujimori. Also, Castañeda's apparently been hemorrhaging support so badly that they didn't even bother putting up his numbers up in any of the three polls.

CPI poll from April 7th: Humala 29%, Fujimori 21.5%, Kuczynski 19.3%, Toledo 15%. (margin of error "around two percent")
Ipsos-Apoyo poll from April 7th: Humala 28%, Fujimori 21.4%, Kuczynski 18.4%, Toledo 18.2%. (margin of error "around two percent")
Datum poll from April 8th: Humala 31.9%, Fujimori 22.3%, Kuczynski 17.3%, Toledo 15.3%. (margin of error 1.4%)

[Bacon King]

Looks like a consensus among all three exit polls with all three of the last-couple-of-days polls, I fear.

edit- results will be online in twenty one minutes (9:00 pm Eastern time). They've been counting for four hours so the results they post should basically be complete.

[Bacon King]

unofficial count from a supervising NGO, Transparencia-

Humala: 31.3%
Fujimori: 23.2%

looks like it'll definitely be an "AIDS vs. terminal cancer" runoff!

[Bacon King]

WHAAAAT.

43% of results counted-

Humala 27.0%
Kuczynski 23.6%
Fujimori 21.8%
Toledo 15.4%
Castaneda 11.5%

http://www.elecciones2011.onpe.gob.pe/resultados2011/1ravuelta/

[Bacon King]

83.5% counted-

Humala 30.1%
Fujimori 23.2%
Kucynzski 19.6%
Toledo 15.2%
Castaneda 10.3%

[Bacon King]

The Peruvian election board website is more advanced, detailed, and user-friendly than any such website in the United States.

In the handy table/chart, you can look at results for a specific department, and from there look at results for a specific region, and from there look at results for a specific district! (to emphasize the level of detail available here, Peru has 1,833 districts).

In the international results, you can break down results by continent, then nation, then even local areas within these foreign nations! For example, though no United States results have been counted yet (only 5% of international results counted so far), I could see how Peruvians in Atlanta voted.

To highlight how much of a flop Castañeda's candidacy was, note that he's in fifth place with 13.4% (96% reporting) in the Lima province (equivalent to the city of Lima, of which he was the mayor).

[Bacon King]

Oh, just as I typed that they put up results for Massachusetts (with Boston counted separately from non-Boston).

Boston's 862 votes are split 38.7% for PPK, 28.8% for Fujimori, 14.2% for Toledo, 10.4% for Humala, and 7.4% for Castaneda.

the rest of MA's 212 votes are 41.5% for PPK, 23.1% Fujimori, 16.5% Toledo, 9% for both Castaneda and Humala.

[Bacon King]

83.5% counted-

Humala 30.1%
Fujimori 23.2%
Kucynzski 19.6%
Toledo 15.2%
Castaneda 10.3%

God, I know Polish names are hard, but it's Kuczynski, not Kucynzski.

My bad. I was typing quickly You'll notice I also routinely ignore the Castaneda's tilde.

[Bacon King]

Okay, I've charted out the results and I'll now be making maps. (Note that in a couple of departments the results are very close, so things may change with the 5-10% that's yet to report).

But some information to chew on for you now:

10 departments had Humala in first, Fujimori in second.
4 departments had Humala in first, Kuczynski in second.
2 departments had Humala in first, Toledo in second.

6 departments had Fujimori in first, Humala in second.

2 departments had Kuczynski in first, Fujimori in second.

1 department had Toledo in first, Humala in second.

Humala's best result: 63% in Puno
Fujimori's best result: 36% in Tumbes
Kuczynski's best result: 29% in Callao
Toledo's best result: 35% in Loreto
Castañeda's best result: 24% in Lambayeque (third place)

[Bacon King]

Quickly made; don't know why uploading it to the forum did the distortion thing.

EDIT: adding new maps to this post to keep them all together.





Note the color key change on the map above. I would have included a >35% category but that would only include Tumbes where she made 36%.

 

[Bacon King]

Alright, that's all the maps from me. Don't think I'll bother doing a map for Castaneda unless people really want to see it. He only broke 20% in one region (Lambayeque, third one down on the north coast) and only broke 10% in four (La Libertad, just down the coast from Lambayeque; Callao, the inset; Lima, the region surrounding the inset; and Ica, the region to the south of Lima)

[Bacon King]

What's with Toledo's strength in the Amazonas? What are demographics there like?

The areas are pretty indigenous. He was Peru's first indigenous president, after all. He had a big second inauguration ceremony at Machu Picchu after he was elected, with Incan allusions and everything, IIRC. A Google search reveals that he basically started his reentry into national politics by coming out hard against President Garcia's plan to sell Amazon land in 2009ish. He possibly also got some support from people remembering him as the "face" of the opposition to papa Fujimori.

[Bacon King]

For the record, Fujimori has consistently been 1% to 4% ahead of Humala in all recent polls.