How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[No One]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

[No One]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

[No One]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

If Candidate A gets 30% in the polls, what are his/her odds of winning (beating Schwartz) answer: 30% odds of winning and 70% of losing.
I understood the question quite well.... you, on the other hand, do not understand basic arithmetic. Every percentage point that the Congresswoman's opponent receives is a percentage of a chance they have of beating her  (winning). If s/he gets 32% in the polls, s/he has a 32% chance of winning.
I had a GREAT 2nd great math teacher... want her number?