Rank the Obama states Trump flipped,on how likely they are to stay in his column

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

(From most to least):

1. Iowa
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Pennsylvania
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan

Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are obvious as they are perennial swing states. Trump's margins in Iowa and Ohio were pretty big and he got 51%+ of the vote in both of them. Florida his total votes was absolutely gargantuan and Rubio proves there's still some more to get.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will all be won by him in 2020 but PA will be the easiest. For one, it's the state Trump won by pure brute force. Clinton did everything right in that state (like in Florida) - held her convention there, did tons of rallies, ran ads, etc. etc. Trump still beat her with phenomenal turnout. Wisconsin on the other hand Trump had a very unique path to victory - Clinton lost due to turnout. So the question is can Trump get all his voters back in Wisconsin but also do as well as Romney or Bush in the suburbs? If he cans he wins easily in 2020.

Michigan on the other hand was tough. Clinton really had terrible turnout - only 2.2 million votes while Obama got 2.6 million. Trump only got 2.3 million and he really won because of her poor turnout. So to win in 2020 he will need to do what he needs to do in Wisconsin (get back the suburban Bush/Romney voters) but also try and steal a few more Democratic votes assuming the nominee won't have poor turnout like Clinton.

My predictions for 2020:

1. Iowa - Trump 54, D 44
2. Ohio - Trump 53, D 45
3. Florida - Trump 51, D 48
4. Pennsylvania - Trump 51, D 47
5. Wisconsin - Trump 50, D 48
6. Michigan - Trump 50, D 49