Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[junior chįmp]

Whenever things start looking up for Trump....he chokes like a true choke artist and sends his ratings back down

[junior chįmp]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Carter had a 60% approval rating in January 1980

[junior chįmp]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

[junior chįmp]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

Same as their two previous polls.

This is actually tied for his highest approval in Quinnipiac polls lol

[junior chįmp]

Back down it goes:

Ipsos (January 27 and 28)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%

[junior chįmp]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

You clearly have over the past two months a small polling improvement for Trump

44% approval with an economy which Trump claims is "the greatest boom in history." What will happen when the economy slows even a little? He's going to get BTFO

[junior chįmp]

Gallup has trump at 49

Poll of adults, not likely or even registered voters. 527 Republicans and leaners, 443 Democrats and leaners. Over sampled men.

Tho, not surprising tbh. Nobody cares about political scandals when the economy is good

[junior chįmp]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

This is really unreliable.

I would not ignore this poll. As I keep telling Atlas....nobody cares about Trump corruption, stupidity, impeachment, etc...

Politicians are narrowly constrained by economic fundamentals despite everything they do. 2020 cant be a landslide for Dems with a good economy and when people go and vote....they vote a general sense of well being about the economy completely oblivious to everything else going on.

[junior chįmp]

Gallup has trump at 49

Poll of adults, not likely or even registered voters. 527 Republicans and leaners, 443 Democrats and leaners. Over sampled men.

Tho, not surprising tbh. Nobody cares about political scandals when the economy is good

Watergate.

Nixon at the least was having some successful foreign policy, and he was pushing significant reforms in the economy.

The economy is going great -- incredibly great for the social apex. But if it is only the economy, then why ro middle-class blacks, Hispanics, and Asians hold him in contempt?  -

49% from that sample? Not so great for Trump.

At the time the recession of 1973-75 was considered a severe recession. It was the most severe since World War II.

[junior chįmp]

One thing is different this time: Trump has been in campaign mode even after being elected. So can he pick things up by staying much the same?

I suspect that as usual, Trump rallied his supporters and offended his detractors. After the whitewash of his obvious "high crimes and misdemeanors" I expect him express his vindication.

Lol no

A massive new study reviews the evidence on whether campaigning works. The answer's bleak.

[junior chįmp]

Interesting enough that none of Atlas Democrats is talking about the new "TheHill/HarrisX" Poll which pegs the Presidents JA at 49/51. The Hill isn't Trumps favorable Pollster.

The Economy added 225K Jobs in January far more compared to what Analysts were predicting.

I asked this again: Why the heck would you toss out a President with these kind of Job Numbers?

Because the economy has peaked:

https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1225824854911438849?s=19
https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak/status/1225491603537715201?s=19
https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1223240755835293697?s=19

Jobs numbers dont tell you the whole story. Keep in mind that in August 1980, 259k jobs were created and Carter was still thrown out of office.

[junior chįmp]

B+ Golden Standard Quinnipiac University





RV:
Approve 43 (/)
52 (/)

Economy:
Approve 52
Disapprove 44

Acqutal:

Approve   49%
Disapprove   49%

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

[junior chįmp]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

[junior chįmp]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

Russian bear, you spoke too soon. Today, the jobs openings number was released and posted the largest loss on record:

https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/1227297684895207427?s=19

Manufacturing job numbers plunged the most since the Great recession of 2008:

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1227323269423955968?s=19

Again, this economy is teetering on recession.

https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1227338886000599040?s=19

[junior chįmp]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

Trumps approval rating peaked with the cyclical peaking of the economy. Expect it to go down as the economy stagnates. I still think the economy will tank around summer