2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[junior chįmp]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

Kim won't win

[junior chįmp]

Democracy Corps/Greenberg Poll: Democrats +11 on Generic Ballot

[junior chįmp]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

Yawn....these the same polls that had Hillary winning in a landslide? Rofl

[junior chįmp]

This thread is turning into a 4 way circle jerk between various troll sock accounts

[junior chįmp]

Democrats will win big in 2018....ignore the polls.

The last ABC poll taken before the 1994 midterms showed it a 4% lead for the GOP

Again, look at the signal (retirements, fundraising, enthusiasm,etc...) and not the noise (polls, dumbass pundits, LimoLiberal)

Look at the polling from 1994 for example:

[junior chįmp]

Why go all the way back to 1994? Just look at 2014.

2014 should of come as no surprise due to a political phenomenon known as the 6 year itch

1994 was unique because nobody thought the GOP would take over Congress. There was an article not too long ago about the 1994 mid-terms that talked about how Gingrich was like the only person in the Republican Party who thought they would take over the House because he looked at the underlying fundamentals and avoided the polls (most of which showed a close race). He noticed that the House had become a gerontocracy of an old and out of touch generation and that in every Congressional election year, the amount of Boomers in Congress began to increase. For Example:

1975-1% of Congress was made up of Baby Boomers
1977-2%
1979-4%
1981-6%
1983-11%
1985-12%
1987-16%
1989-21%

(The data I have available ends in 1989)

Extrapolating from these trends, Gingrich realized that the generational fundamentals alone would lead Republicans to victory in 1994. Basically, the same thing is going to happen now in reverse and all these old Boomer jagoffs are about to get tossed out.

These are things nobody looks at. So many people on Atlas jerk off endlessly to polls and useless data but if you want to make predictions, you have to come at it from every angle possible. Look at enthusiasm, donations, the collective feeling at the time, the generational dynamics, the party in power, the economy, etc...

Data and polling alone is useless

[junior chįmp]

^^^

Gingrich is a much cannier analyst of American politics than he gets credit for

Here's the article or anyone interested.

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[junior chįmp]

^ I don't agree with placing so much emphasis on the "Contract for America" thing (I recall reading that they only laid it out a month or two before the election and most people weren't even aware of it), but I do agree with a number of the things you laid out in your previous post. There is only so much emphasis you can place on generic ballot polls, and they best thought of as one part of a multi-part model. That is one thing I learned from 2016. Polls were the only thing that truly indicated a possible wave, while everything else seemed to point to a closer race, or at least not a wave.

That being said, the polls are still important, but there is still a lot of room to move either way. If you think the average of D+7 right now with a MoE of 3 points is where things currently stand at, then it could go anywhere from D+4 to D+10, which is the difference between a probable GOP majority and a probable Democratic majority.

I agree that policy positions don't matter at all. All election victories can be attributed, for the most part, to factors outside of the candidates control. The Great Society never would of happened if Kennedy hadn't had his head blown off or had Kennedy chosen someone inexperienced as his VP (only LBJ could of rammed that legislation through). Good quality candidates are made my the historical moment and policy positions come from one party trying to snap up coalitions to create a dominant enough coalition to legislate. But candidates and policies alone do very little to win elections all on their own. Unfortunately, this is what the centrist wing of the Democratic Party doesn't understand.

[junior chįmp]

Per DKE... ABC has a poll showing GCB at D+14

Told you guys. Stick to da fundamentals

[junior chįmp]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

[junior chįmp]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

[junior chįmp]

I’m trying to decide what the best way to interpret that poll’s enthusiasm gap numbers are.

[junior chįmp]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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[junior chįmp]

Now that the GOP's bump has receeded, back to our 🌊 tsunami

New Marist Poll - Generic Congressional Ballot D's Lead By 11

[junior chįmp]

I think the second moment of public opinion is shifting moreso than the first. In other words, Rs both had a positive shift and momentum over the last month or so. Now, momentum is shifting back to the Democrats, just the short term trend isn't showing it yet.

In other words....standard operating procedure of all.midterms going back 70 years

[junior chįmp]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

[junior chįmp]

Anyone here know the House popular vote of the Dem landslides of the 1930s?

http://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/

[junior chįmp]

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

Yeah, it does seem that way. But from a purely historical viewpoint, there's never been such a bad combination on all fronts for the party in power: low presidential approval rating, money being raised, number of retirements, voter enthusiasm, generational factors, etc... I think after a certain point, polling doesnt even matter and cant accurately measure the potential losses.

Just looking at the voter enthusiasm alone. The last time there was a gap that large was when the GOP won 60+ seats in 2010. Look at the polling for 2010:



Doesn't seem that bad for the Dems right, but look at the enthusiasm gap amongst GOP voters:



It was hovering around 60% but 2010 had nowhere near as many retirements, money being raised, low presidential approval rating, and the other factors I listed above. Pollsters have only been measuring the enthusiasm gap since the early 90s and that CNN poll is the widest Ive ever seen it

[junior chįmp]

I'm telling you guys....70+ seats:

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/968675272055762944

[junior chįmp]

There are some new PEW numbers on generational differences on different political issues and the generic congressional numbers from their January poll. I’ll post them later, but they are terrifying for Republicans. Millennials are just as motivated to vote this year as Boomers and Xers, only behind Silents, and they overwhelmingly support Democrats.

That should of been obvious for Republicans looking at the VA GOV turnout numbers for Millennials

They're gonna get romped in November

[junior chįmp]

https://www.twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/969612843019636736

[junior chįmp]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1224 RV

D 43, R 33 (D+10)

Previous: D 40, R 37 (D+3)

The GOP.is finished

[junior chįmp]

Apparently Rasmussen did a generic ballot poll.

Democrats - 46%
Republicans - 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Disasterous for the gop. If we unskew the polls, this is actually D+20. LittleLiberal is bawling his eyes out.

Liberal tears Imminent

[junior chįmp]

70+ seats...I'm tellin ya

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971792070011752448

[junior chįmp]

Seven Dee seats

https://www.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/971950597858525185