I am moving this race to a pure tossup now.
I am actually switching my prediction to Youngkin +5-10. I do think that if the result stays close, McAuliffe still wins. Rural turnout is down. Youngkin either flips the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA/Richmond vote en masse or he doesn't. For the first time, I think he will.
Rural turnout is much higher than in 2017, and they vote on election day.
You don’t have to flip the suburbs but you can make improvements there as well as take advantage of lower Democratic turnout.
Turnout by area is fairly consistent election after election.
