The Kalwejt Foundation for the Promotion of Atlas Hilarity (user search)
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  The Kalwejt Foundation for the Promotion of Atlas Hilarity (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Kalwejt Foundation for the Promotion of Atlas Hilarity  (Read 217137 times)
AtorBoltox
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Posts: 3,119


« on: December 12, 2017, 11:12:48 PM »

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My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the percentage total number of votes counted*100. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election last year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.
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