Aurelio21
Rookie
Posts: 131
|
 |
« on: October 06, 2018, 04:05:30 AM » |
|
Despite BetoMania, the congresional district polls indicate a result Cruz - O'Rourke 51 to 47
Trump won Texas by a margin of 9 %. Let's assume the 3 NYT/Siena polls represent the demographic average of Texas:
TX- 7 : Cruz +4 -(Trump -3) = Cruz +7 (Majority hispanic but low hispanic turnout, obvious Preference by hispanics for latino sounding name even if in bed with their nemesis)
TX-23 : Cruz -7 - (Trump - 1) = Cruz -6 (Suburbia Texas, home turf of Beto)
TX-31 : Cruz +9 - (Trump +13) =Cruz -4 (Exurbian and rural texan voters)
DeltaCruz= (+7-6*2-4*2)/5 = -5
Due to low hispanic midterm turnout (which obviously skew to Cruz, which reminds me of Winston Churchill's "The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute talk to an average voter") yet higher turnout in suburban Texas and Beto visiting every county I am weighing these at the optimum for Beto, thus my prediction is the ceiling for him.
|
