How the hell is Maine a swing state ?!? It hasn't
gone Red since the Reagan/Bush 41 age?
ME-02 is a toss up district but the state overall is Likely D.
Did you miss the 2016 Election or Something? Clinton only carried Maine by 2.9%. That is not safe at all. States don't have to be won by both party's to be considered a Swing State. A swing State is a state which can be reasonably won by either the Democratic or Republican Presidential candidate. A Republican can very reasonably overcome a 2.9%. It may of been a lean Democratic state during the Obama Years but 2016 showed there is a Republican trend in Maine.
States that usually belong to one party can trend to another if the environment is right.
Hell, Bill Clinton won a lot of heavily Republican states (for example)
2016 was unique - You had a Dem candidate who was very unlikable and was very establishment running after 8 years of a Democratic administration and you had a GOP candidate who was anti establishment and appealed (for what reason I don't know but still) to rural lower-middle class whites. That was a unique setup that is unlikely to be duplicated. I doubt Maine is within 5 points next time - Remember a big portion of Maines population comes from the Portland area which is heavily blue in the same sphere of influence as Southern NH
Of course states do. Thats what Maine is doing right now, its trending republican. We dont know if its long term because it has only been 1 election so far (2016) but if a 2.9% democratic victory in 2016 can tell us anything; right now Maine will most likely be a swing state in 2020 and the future of the state depends on the politics after. Like Minnesota for example, It is trending republican and we dont know if its permanent but we do know that right now it is considered a swing state
at the moment unless 2020 is a 2008 type election. Also who says that this is a one time occurrence and maybe a indicator of something long term
How do you know its unique? How do you know its not a long term trend?