Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Omolloy]

I feel like high election day turnout is a necessary, but perhaps not sufficient condition for a Republican victory. Though that certainly depends on the degree to which the Democrats have cannablised their e-day vote in the early vote.

[Omolloy]

We may not have the exact numbers but it will be blatantly obvious to everyone if 1 million people did not show up to vote today.

you dont have be a math wiz in order to notice that so far turnout is not anyhing like it was during the November presidential election and if that does not change over the next few hours than the GOP is in big trouble.....

Hey roxas! You're totally right, and you're also one of my favorite lefties on this forum! Would you like to get an avatar like all of us? I remember you saying you're from Louisiana (great state imo). We don't have many Louisiana avatars on here, and I think people would pay more attention to your great posts if you had an avatar. It's super easy to make, you just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and select your political party and state.

I have no idea if this whole thing is a joke or not, but your ability to segue profile avatars into any post is genuinely gold.

[Omolloy]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

[Omolloy]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yes, 5pm Eastern is the standard time for initial exit poll release.  But it won't include any top-line numbers, just things like "what was the most important issue", "when did you make up your mind", etc.

Ah, yeah, makes sense. Thanks!

[Omolloy]

DeKalb country breaks it’s November turnout according to CNN...

[Omolloy]

The exit polls are always everything (early, mail, in person, election day, etc.)

Meanwhile, interesting that the CNN 2020 November exit poll ended up being R+4 (38-34-28) while this is D+3 (39-36-25)

White/black was 61-29-7 in November too, so these are all very similar, and will depend on how they change

I believe you have the today’s numbers reversed, it’s 39R-36D, which is still a 1 point improvement over November (although completely statistically insignificant)

[Omolloy]

Sounds like, according to the Secretary of State's office, some polling stations will be allowed to extend their closing time until after 7PM, until 7:15PM, although I could not pick out which ones they are.

I can't post any links yet but you can listen to the live stream on GPB.

[Omolloy]

So it begins.

[Omolloy]

Voters of colour voting 84% for Ossoff? Seems quite high to me

[Omolloy]

So it begins.

Technically, it began on December 14

True, but slightly less dramatic.

[Omolloy]

I'm ready to make my prediction ... that this will be a very close race

[Omolloy]

Apparently Fulton County will end up with about ~78,000 fewer votes than in November. Not sure what that really means though, seems like around 85% of November turnout

[Omolloy]

Give it to me straight—how’s it looking so far

Way too early to tell. Seems like Democrats are exceeding their early vote compared to November, but for all we know at this stage, that could just be more Democrats and Republicans bifurcating into early and e-day vote respectively.

[Omolloy]

How come every single really postive bit of news feels like sniffing pain killers off of a super models ass and every bit of negative news feels like I just watched my childhood dog get hit by a bus

If that is true, there might be much deeper issues going on than just the election

[Omolloy]

Wonder how MillennialModerate is reacting to getting Georgia horribly wrong, again

[Omolloy]

Wonder how MillennialModerate is reacting to getting Georgia horribly wrong, again

How foolish of you to celebrate when this thing isn’t over.

Let’s actually see the Dems lead first ...

Where are the Republican votes going to come from? They've underperformed everywhere, very slightly, but incredibly consistently. There's way too much left in DeKalb for Perdue, let alone Loeffler.

[Omolloy]

Even if you don't feel confident enough to declare that Ossoff has won, which is reasonable, it would insane to suggest that Ossoff isn't the clear frontrunner (and Warnock too, but that race isn't worth talking about anymore).

[Omolloy]

I don’t get it, the margins are

70k for Kelly
109k for Perdue

Yes Dekalb is outstanding but GOP will pick up votes in almost every remaining area other than that?

So this is a dead tossup...

I know I’m usually negetive but seriously... why is this considered so heavily Dem?

Because, of course, Chatham, Henry and Cobb are all famously Republican strongholds.

[Omolloy]

Uhhhh Dekalb CEO Thurmond just said there are only 130k votes left to count in Dekalb...

If that's all that are left and I'm looking at the current totals, Dekalb would only be at around 70% of November's raw totals...that'd be among the lowest (if not the lowest) turnout in the state.

Does that include mail votes?

I don't believe so. I was only half paying attention, but it seemed like on CNN they were stressing that this 130k figure almost entirely comes from in-person early voting.

[Omolloy]

CNN admitting that it's actually 171k votes outstanding in DeKalb. Apparantly, someone got it mixed up and informed them it was 117k instead

[Omolloy]

So, when is the DeKalb drop? I thought it was supposed to be before 11pm

[Omolloy]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I realise that engaging with this isn't very constructive. But please, for your own sake, if Ossoff ends up winning, can you take a break from this forum?

[Omolloy]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

Gabriel Sterling is claiming that it's only absentee by mail that came in today left in Chatham.

[Omolloy]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

Gabriel Sterling is claiming that it's only absentee by mail that came in today left in Chatham.

Yeah they added their early in-person votes two mins before I posted, trimmed about 3k from the lead.

Coincidentally, I believe there's supposed to be around 3k votes left from Chatham.

[Omolloy]

Assuming Ossoff wins, who will be the Junior Senator and who will be the Senior Senator? Forgive my ignorance.

Ossoff, because his surname alphabetically comes before Warnock's. It's the the last of 7 tiebreakers, but the others are based on past state and federal experience, for which neither of them have any.