Which Midwestern State are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

100x yep. The Dems haven't shown they've moved on from the "I care only about Milwaukee/Madison" mindset that had sunk them time and time again since '09.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

100x yep. The Dems haven't shown they've moved on from the "I care only about Milwaukee/Madison" mindset that had sunk them time and time again since '09.

It worked in the supreme court election.

Officially non-partisan and specials are low-turnout affairs that favour the presidential outparty.