It's the same as the takeaway from 2022: when both parties try really hard in a race, Democrats keep winning and often pretty comfortably, even though when neither side is trying as hard the national environment is actually quite Republican-favorable. This is the way you reconcile the astounding victories for Beshear and McCaffery with the state legislative stuff in VA/NJ/NYC/NH/MA. (Note that Democrats did do well enough to flip the Virginia House -- and I think also the New Hampshire House although I might have lost track of vacancies there -- but not better.)
The New Hampshire House is now 198R-197D-3I with two remaining vacancies to be filled by year-end. Two of the independents are ex-Democrats and one is an ex-Republican. One of the ex-Democrats (Shaun Filiault) left because he was making various deals with the Republicans (he represents Keene so is guaranteed to be out at the next election unless he comes back around). The other ex-Democrat (Maria Perez) I can't find anything about why she left the party, just that she did. The ex-Republican (Dan Hynes) left the Republicans because he thought they were "too liberal" (lol).
So very up-in-the-air. I think Filiault would probably vote for Democratic leadership if there were otherwise a tie, unclear about Perez. Hynes would vote for Republican leadership. Which means the vacancies will decide control. Both vacancies are in Coos County, with one being ex-Republican and the other ex-Democratic but probably either could be won by either party.
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