What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?
McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.
McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.
I believe this, too. I think he'd sit as a true Independent, which we haven't had in the Senate in a long time. I think the last one was Wayne Morse, who sat on the crossbenches in 1952-1955 after leaving the Republican caucus and before joining the Democrats. Interestingly, all independents in the Senate since then have caucused with the Democrats (Harry Byrd, Jr., Jim Jeffords, Joe Lieberman and of course the two current independents).
He could in theory either now or after 2024 be a key swing vote, so he might manage to get committee assignments, etc. on that basis.
