UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Tintrlvr]

how i pity the me of a decade ago scared away from buying from the uk by the pound being like $1.65

What a blast from 2005 that video is! Yatta pretty accurately describes the moment though.

[Tintrlvr]

More polling continues to put Labour above 50%:

Deltapoll:

51% Labour
26% Tories

Omnisis:

51% Labour
24% Tories

PeoplePolling:

52% Labour
20% Tories

Of the 16 polls released after the mini-budget fiasco, 9 of them have Labour at 50% or above.

The Omnisis poll is actually a slight swing back to the Tories since their last poll (Lab -4, Con +1, LD +3), so the decline at least seems to have stopped.

[Tintrlvr]

People Polling have just released a poll which shows Lab - 54 Tory - 19

Worst Tory poll result since Gallup on Jan 9, 1995 that had the Tories on 18.5%. And maybe the second-worst result ever.

[Tintrlvr]

The Times is reporting discussions of a Sunak/Mordaunt “joint ticket” to replace Truss.

The Tories have actually gained a seat in a council by-election tonight, in Waltham Abbey, Essex, but it was a very odd by-election where the only other candidate was the Green ex-councillor whose disqualification for non-attendance caused the by-election.

They also gained a seat in Leicester where Labour nominated a Hindu nationalist in a majority-Muslim ward. Still a weird contrast with the dreadfully terrible polling.

[Tintrlvr]

An Irish headline from a decade and a half ago comes to mind.

I suppose the Tories can take comfort from the fact that Fianna Fail somehow came back.

[Tintrlvr]

Isn’t Grant Shapps supposedly one of the biggest proponents of Truss’s ousting? His appointment is both hilarious and makes sense.

It does match the Regency narrative.

[Tintrlvr]

That is the lowest vote share (and people are still double checking) ever recorded for the Conservatives in published General Election opinion polling.

It's not close, either. I checked this earlier when there was a poll with the Tories at 19%. The lowest ever before this was 18.5% in a Gallup poll in January 1995. 14% is just comical.

Edit: Actually I forgot the brief, chaotic moment in summer 2019 when the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems suddenly led in the polls. The Tories hit 17% once in an Opinium poll in May 2019. I think the lowest Labour score ever was also around that time, when they hit 19% a few times.

[Tintrlvr]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

But why?  They went from being a single-issue pro-Brexit party to a single-issue anti-lockdown party, to... what next?

Some right-wing Tory voters who feel put off by the stitch-up for Sunak, perhaps.

[Tintrlvr]

Surprised it only took a very slight change in the polls for people to suddenly jump into maybe the Tories will win mode. I'm sure this is what they've been waiting for

There was an infamous poll during the 1997 campaign showing Labour ahead by only 5%. This might have contributed to Portillo's comments mentioned earlier in the thread.

The polling error in 1992 surely didn't help either.

[Tintrlvr]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures?

Yes, and my personal (and not universally popular) opinion is that there is nothing wrong with that.

Well, he wasn't a gentrifier, just a hypocrite then, because it still means social housing isn't being allocated to those who actually need it.

But.......is that what "social housing" should be about, or at least *just* that?

Certainly in the UK, when council housing was built in large amounts post-war it wasn't just the poor who lived there. Letting them become ghettoes arguably isn't the best thing.

The solution is not to evict people like Bob Crow, it is to build more!

In any other city than London I'd concede to you that I wouldn't want to outright evict him of he considers it his home. But in this case it's just rank hypocrisy.

How are social housing rents determined? Here in NYC, public housing is usually charged as a percentage of income, so while there are some people making six figures living in public housing and no rules against it (assuming they qualified when they moved in), they pay what are often pretty close to market rents, which in a small way (there are few such people) does help to subsidize the rest of the system.

[Tintrlvr]

David Warburton (Suspended Conservative, Somerton and Frome) is resigning as an MP

Given the history this has to be a nailed-on LD gain.

[Tintrlvr]

The very funny context for those unaware is that Ewing is the son of Winnie Ewing- one of the most high profile SNP figures in the 70s who really started the first wave of panic among Labour about Scotland.

After she lost in '79 iirc it basically caused a nasty bout of SNP infighting which led to the strange (even by Labour standards) internal culture- a sign of that was that in 1990 Alex Salmond (yes him!) was in a leadership race against Winnie Erwing. Salmond won and was then replaced in 2000 by someone who would remain as Deputy leader of the SNP until this year!

In 1990 Winnie Ewing was no longer an MP (though still a MEP) It was Margaret Ewing, her daughter in law, who Salmond defeated - IIRC it was seen as a bit of a surprise result at the time.

The 1990 leadership election had similar campaign style, membership engagement and ideological factions as this years. It even had the same factional figures such as Neil and Sillars heavily briefing against Salmond.

With Humza, interestingly being 'the Salmond' (and note Salmond has not been particularly critical of him) as the more left wing, member engaging candidate.

It's really striking how much the conservative, rural, "little Scotland" wing of the SNP revolves around the Ewing family. Kate Forbes was a significant departure in that sense.

[Tintrlvr]

Yes, the rules plus the reduction in seats was always going to result in a messy and unhappy map, but there are some details that really do go beyond that and speak of a sort of romantic ignorance. The cross-Berwyns constituency is genuinely mad and easily avoidable.

Wales is unique in that it's effectively a 'massif' with lots population hugging the coast and the Valleys only being populated because of what was beneath the feet.

The watersheds in Powys effectively flow into England as as you can't cross that border you're trying to find ways to bleed out of there.

There's a strong case to make it protected area at Review (and the Highlands for a similar reason) as it's effectively an 'island.'

I agree that north east Wales is an unnecessary mess even outside of this.

The real answer at this point seems to be reducing Powys to one seat entirely within Powys with bits on the edges carved out to other areas. That would be unpopular for obvious reasons, however.

[Tintrlvr]

the uk should have it general election on the same day as the presidential election for memes

We haven't had a non-Thursday GE for over a century, sorry.

The same week, then.

[Tintrlvr]

By-election imminent in Lagan Valley?

[Tintrlvr]

One other point of interest is that around half a dozen LibDem MPs actually voted in favour of the ban and the rest abstained. That none voted against has caused a bit of internal disquiet - some activists take the "liberal" part of their name incredibly seriously.

I think this is a pretty natural fissure for liberal parties. "Ban smoking" is a pretty archetypical social liberal policy as a social good while "don't ban smoking" is pretty a solidly classical liberal-to-libertarian position on liberty grounds, so I'd expect a typical liberal party that contains both tendencies to have internal debate.

Other groups should have internal debate too - Labour between a similar impulse to the social liberals to ban it for the social good and a feeling that this targets the working class and should therefore not be banned, and the Tories between a tradition argument against banning vs a "think of the children" argument to ban. Conservatism, liberalism and socialism writ large should each be divided here.

[Tintrlvr]

Humza Yousaf's political credibility now lie in a single pair of hands. A pair of hands he said "was no great loss to the SNP". Ash Regan will probably cast the deciding vote - which is, objectively, the funniest outcome.

So what happens next?

Scenario 1: Regan supports Yousaf, and he hangs on, but hardly in a strong position.

Scenario 2: Regan abstains or votes against, so the VONC carries. Formally to trigger automatic resignation it's supposed to be a VONC in the Government, rather than the First Minister, but he'd surely be under much pressure to resign. No new FM is chosen within the 28 day window, triggering a snap election. The date is chosen by the Presiding Officer; are we looking at September?

Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but Yousaf is replaced as SNP leader and FM (by whom? Forbes?) and Regan falls in line, avoiding the election, but how on earth would that work with the factional battles within the SNP?

Someone would defect to the Greens or sit as an independent if Forbes takes over in this context, surely.