2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tintrlvr]

Do any sites have a running map of county swings? NYT has a button that looks like it should show it, but nothing happens when you click on it.

There's a little note below the button on the NYT page that says it will only work in counties that have reported "almost all" of their votes. Some Indiana counties are estimated at over 70% reporting, but I guess that's not enough.

I looked through and Biden is improving on Clinton (and Trump down on his 2016 result) in every Indiana county reporting thus far, though. The range varies, in some it's around a 3-4 point swing but others seem to be more like 10-12 points. Kentucky seems less reliable to refer to thus far as the swings are all over the place and maybe reflect mail vs. in-person balloting more.

[Tintrlvr]

Boone county partially in IN-05 is Trump+16 and about 86% of their 2016 turnout (was Trump+29)

Also Biden is 1,000 votes ahead of Clinton but Trump is 4,000 votes behind his 2016 result there.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323774881415180288

What did I say earlier about Republicans voting before work and Democrats voting after work? Still true.

If Dems gain control of power in more states, they should definitely consider extending hours for election day voting. In New York, we're open for voting until 9pm; be more like that.

[Tintrlvr]

Trump's leading in FL.

it's Brevard, Pasco and Lee, all Trump 2016 counties.

[Tintrlvr]

REMINDER

these numbers are exclusively or mostly EARLY VOTE ONLY IN FLORIDA.

However, Biden is well ahead of Clinton's raw vote in every county reporting so far. Trump is behind his 2016 raw vote in every county.

(For posterity, that's Brevard, Lake, Pasco, Pinellas and Lee.)

[Tintrlvr]

Trump is improving in Osceola too, so it's not just Cubans.

Non-white Democrats are more likely to vote on ED compared to white Democrats. Hard to compare counties in Florida where a large portion to a majority of Democrats are white to counties where most Democrats are non-white (same goes for North Florida).

[Tintrlvr]

Pinellas just dumped more votes and it brought the result very close. Not sure if those were the ED votes (in which case Pinellas may be done, Biden carries it narrowly) or something else.

[Tintrlvr]

Pinellas just dumped more votes and it brought the result very close. Not sure if those were the ED votes (in which case Pinellas may be done, Biden carries it narrowly) or something else.

I found the Pinellas County elections website. Apparently their current results are all ED, all early in-person and "partial" mail votes. So Biden's margin there should expand, but unclear how many mail votes there are left to count.

https://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/106209/web.264614/#/summary

[Tintrlvr]

Kinda crazy to think that in 2024 there will be voters who literally never experienced a Republican Candidate winning the popular vote in their whole lifetime.

This was also true going into the 1952 Presidential election, for what it's worth.