Pre-rounding changes:
October 16-18
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Changes with October 3-5
Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Refused 4% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (not previously included)
Undecided 2% (-1)
Interesting that it's "Refused" that went up. It's possible that there are a lot of people who will tell you who they *plan* to vote for but may not be willing you to tell you who they *actually voted* for, which may explain the rise in undecideds in some polls recently: Some people who have already voted early (in person or by mail) are now unwilling to respond to polls.
Because they voted for Trump.
This makes no sense. Why would that be particular to supporters of one candidate? It's one thing to say that Trump voters are shy generally, but another thing to say they, in particular, are willing to say they support Trump but not that they voted for him.
If it's anything at all, it's much more likely to be voters who have stronger beliefs in private ballots, who cut across the spectrum. Exit pollsters know exactly that this happens, although it's become less common over the years (it was more common with voters born in the early 20th century and came of age by the 50s, who are mostly deceased now).
