Here's the 2016 swing map.
Here's a map of modern family viewership.
And a map of Duck Dynasty viewership.
Variables that signify white voters voting Republican: Masculinity, Religiosity, ruralness.
Variables that signify white voters voting Democrat: Education, social liberalism, density.
Modern Family doesn't work so well because it only accounts for urban Democratic voters, i.e., rural Democratic voters such as black voters in the South, Native Americans in the Plains/Mountains and Hispanics in the Southwest don't show up. But Duck Dynasty is interesting in that rural minority voters also don't watch, so it's overall a quite strong correlation. Still seems to fall off a bit out West, though - the Central Valley of California is too low, e.g., and Arizona is off. Perhaps a climatic issue.
