2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee  (Read 17971 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,340


« on: December 09, 2019, 12:47:02 PM »
« edited: December 09, 2019, 12:59:14 PM by Tintrlvr »

It seems like this is yet another state where there isn't much that can be done to please Democrats. According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it isn't really possible to create a third strongly D-leaning district here, although it would be possible to create 2-3 swing districts (which would look rather awkward in terms of geographic shapes).

I think if you split Memphis up, you could create another Democratic district. But that would be sacrificing a black-majority seat.

Here you go: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9b5b9329-9bb3-470f-83b5-ba4b6a607862

It's actually possible to create two minority-majority seats based in Memphis (narrowly, but both are plurality white). They're both competitive but Democratic-leaning; the one that was weaker for Obama in 2008 has trended solidly D since then and is probably actually safer, and the one that was stronger for Obama in 2008 has trended somewhat R but less than you might think (western Tennessee actually hasn't trended R very hard at the presidential level since 2008; it's middle Tennessee that has had a sharp R trend).

This is an obvious Democratic gerrymander (possible dummymander), though. Maybe it could be neater if you went over the top of Shelby County instead of around the bottom.
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