Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,337
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« on: February 16, 2019, 05:14:10 PM » |
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De Leon's relative performance in Mendocino and Humboldt wasn't that special. You'd expect a Republican who managed to lose by just 29 points in San Francisco (Clinton+75), as de Leon did, to win Mendocino (Clinton+30) by an even wider margin than de Leon did on a uniform swing. If anything, de Leon overperformed in San Francisco relative to Mendocino given that he was winning pretty much every Republican voter.
In fact, the result in Marin (Feinstein+31, Clinton+62) was exactly the same swing as the result in Mendocino (de Leon+1, Clinton+30).
So, no, Mendocino was not more any more favorable to de Leon than Marin than it is to a Republican candidate who does well state-wide.
Humboldt was slightly better for this case because it swing marginally more to de Leon than Marin/Mendocino did (de Leon+11, Clinton+25), but only by a few points, not enough to really be meaningful.
And Alpine (de Leon+2, Clinton+19) swung much less than Marin did.
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