Kamala Harris 2020 campaign megathread

[Tintrlvr]

I'm not a Bernie supporter. I'd vote for him over Trump but that's about it.

My problem with Harris has to do with talking to people who are infrequent voters, who have to be convinced or motivated to vote even in a Presidential election cycle. I've already heard from many young Black people that Harris "isn't really black" but they're trying to pander for votes because she's a woman of color and her father's Jamaican ancestry. One of the key reason Democrats lost was that there was a lack of turnout with Black youth versus Obama. They want somebody real and authentic to address their issues, not another "black face", or somebody who's less racist than the Republican. With a lot of young people, that's not going to get it done anymore. Democrats need to be wary of this and Harris doesn't help, in some ways she hurts. Also I've been in a room with a bunch of middle aged white men when she was doing her questioning of Kavanaugh, she irritated them in a way that was very visceral and immediate. While that's on them, middle aged white guys tend to vote.

What a ridiculous concern troll. If we're going to have this debate, Obama was way, way less "really black" than Harris is. Obama was raised by his white mother in Indonesia, Kansas and Hawaii with basically zero black people around, never attended a black church until he was an adult, barely even knew his African (not descended from slaves) father and went to an Ivy League college. By contrast, Harris grew up with her Jamaican-American (descended from slaves) father for much of her childhood, attended a predominantly black church (including singing in the choir), lived in a mixed-race neighborhood with a significant black population in Berkeley as a child and went to the preeminent historically black college, Howard, where she was part of the largest black sorority in the country.

[Tintrlvr]

What a ridiculous concern troll. If we're going to have this debate, Obama was way, way less "really black" than Harris is. Obama was raised by his white mother in Indonesia, Kansas and Hawaii with basically zero black people around, never attended a black church until he was an adult, barely even knew his African (not descended from slaves) father and went to an Ivy League college. By contrast, Harris grew up with her Jamaican-American (descended from slaves) father for much of her childhood, attended a predominantly black church (including singing in the choir), lived in a mixed-race neighborhood with a significant black population in Berkeley as a child and went to the preeminent historically black college, Howard, where she was part of the largest black sorority in the country.

 Older Black voters had concerns about Obama and then Obama spoke and then Michelle spoke. Obama was a natural politician and he turned the tide with Black primary voters besides his barnstorming in Iowa, where he also appealed to people in a more folksy manner. Harris is nothing like Obama in that way. Harris might still get huge support from female Black primary voters, who are crucial to any Democrat trying to win the primary. However there is negative backlash among young Black voters that never existed with Obama, I've seen it and heard it first hand. I'm not concern trolling, I want a combination of the most competent, most experienced, and electable Democrat to win the primary. I'm not convinced Harris is that.

People said the exact same things but louder about Obama in 2007-2008, and there was plenty of negative backlash that he wasn't black enough, didn't have real connections in the community, was an elitist, etc. You may be forgetting that Hillary Clinton had an enormous lead with black voters in the polls up until after the Iowa caucuses. It was different once he was actually on the ballots they were being asked to cast.

Also, frankly, young black voters, especially young black men, just don't vote, not even for Obama. She just needs to get Obama levels of black turnout, which doesn't mean reaching every alt-socialist bipster who would find something to complain about for every candidate and never voted for Obama anyway.

[Tintrlvr]

People said the exact same things but louder about Obama in 2007-2008, and there was plenty of negative backlash that he wasn't black enough, didn't have real connections in the community, was an elitist, etc. You may be forgetting that Hillary Clinton had an enormous lead with black voters in the polls up until after the Iowa caucuses. It was different once he was actually on the ballots they were being asked to cast.

Also, frankly, young black voters, especially young black men, just don't vote, not even for Obama. She just needs to get Obama levels of black turnout, which doesn't mean reaching every alt-socialist bipster who would find something to complain about for every candidate and never voted for Obama anyway.

 Obama's campaign was buoyed by enthusiasm from young Black volunteers and voters. It was older established Black figures and voters who supported Clinton early on, with many of their younger family members making the case to them to support Obama.

 While the electorate will be less white and more everything else in 2020, that math only works if young people turnout. It only works if Harris continues to turn college educated Whites and White Women to vote Democrat. Obama didn't just juice black turnout, he averaged mid 90's level support. Democrats have lost elections falling just into the high 80's and depressed turnout with the black vote so your statement is wrong. Harris can't get Gore, Kerry, or Clinton performance with Black voters. She needs to do Obama numbers in turnout and support and what I'm telling you is that the people, not hipsters, or Bernie people, or Russian Facebook accounts are saying she seems like somebody else's candidate not theirs. She needs to work on that and it isn't concern trolling. Just like it wasn't when people were telling Hillary she was toxic in the Midwest or when people told me Gillum was up 2 to 6% and that a blue wave was going to carry him to victory.

My point is that there is zero evidence that Harris has less young black enthusiasm than Obama. The people cited to for "black disaffection with Harris" genuinely did not vote for Obama either and certainly weren't volunteering for him or chatting up their grandparents about him or whatever in December 2007 (let alone January 2007!). Harris will get Obama levels of black support. She won't get higher than Obama, but that's fine! She doesn't need to win people who didn't vote for Obama because he wasn't left-wing enough. (One might be reminded that Obama *was* the centrist candidate on economics in the 2008 primaries, at least relative to Clinton, and ran to Clinton's right on issues like healthcare.)

Also, if not Harris, who are you pointing to for exciting black voters? Sanders certainly didn't excite black voters last time around, and there's no reason to expect it would be different this time. Warren is about as exciting to anyone as a wet paper bag. Booker is far more centrist than Harris. Biden has all sorts of skeletons and is likewise a centrist. The other possibilities are all clearly irrelevant with black voters.

[Tintrlvr]

The real truth is that you know nothing, like everyone else here.

 I don't know how things will turn out, nobody does. But to ignore a real issue is to be naive and stick your head in the sand, that's what Clinton did. Clinton thought somebody else's electoral map would carry her to victory. Look at how the electoral maps change every election, every candidate that wins, wins differently. To think Harris will win with Obama's map or Obama's coalition isn't what usually happens.

No one is saying her coalition is exactly the same as Obama's. There are a lot of ways in which she is a different candidate from Obama, and also a lot of ways in which demographics have changed across the country in ways that both help and hurt the Democrats. But "she's weak with black voters" is ridiculous and not even really worth arguing about. She is clearly the strongest candidate with black voters among all of the potential Democratic nominees and would perform comparably to Obama in that regard. That doesn't mean that alone carries her to victory, but it does mean that there's no reason to be exceptionally concerned about her chances with black voters (and in ways that do not get raised about other candidates).

[Tintrlvr]

It does mean that there's no reason to be exceptionally concerned about her chances with black voters (and in ways that do not get raised about other candidates).

 You're arguing with me but not paying attention to what I wrote. Democrats, all of them need to be wary of young black voters not voting. It happened in 2016, with many saying neither candidate spoke to them.

You are not paying attention to what I am saying. I mean, even granting you the dubious assertion that Harris wouldn't have as high turnout among black youth as Obama, there is obviously no better candidate than Harris for black youth turnout among the prospects (there is no other possible Obama). Name another option if you disagree. It certainly ain't Sanders, Warren, Booker, Biden or any of the other highly speculated candidates.

[Tintrlvr]

Ah so you're using worthless anecdotal evidence.

  If my experiences to you are worthless, than so be it, that's your opinion. I would encourage you to go out and talk to people because I'd like to know what people are feeling and thinking about the Democratic candidates who have announced so far.

Most people on the street don't know who she is or have barely heard of her.

To be fair, this is true of most prospective Presidential candidates a year before the Iowa caucuses, including Obama himself as well as other nominees like John Kerry and Bill Clinton.

[Tintrlvr]

It does mean that there's no reason to be exceptionally concerned about her chances with black voters (and in ways that do not get raised about other candidates).

 You're arguing with me but not paying attention to what I wrote. Democrats, all of them need to be wary of young black voters not voting. It happened in 2016, with many saying neither candidate spoke to them.

You are not paying attention to what I am saying. I mean, even granting you the dubious assertion that Harris wouldn't have as high turnout among black youth as Obama, there is obviously no better candidate than Harris for black youth turnout among the prospects (there is no other possible Obama). Name another option if you disagree. It certainly ain't Sanders, Warren, Booker, Biden or any of the other highly speculated candidates.

 This is nonsense. Democrats didn't learn their lesson from 2016, it's not about making somebody. Obama went out and found his voters in 2008, he was not the front-runner, people even speculated whether he was electable. We have to go earn people's votes, maybe Harris can do this, maybe. I already see people acting like she's owed votes or she'll get them because...

 That's not good enough, so let's stop acting like it's so.

Nobody said anything about being owed votes except you.

[Tintrlvr]

Again, why is Kamala wasting her time in Iowa? She's a horrible fit for that state! Even though rural voters have been trending Republican rapidly, there are still a lot of wwc/rural voters in the dem primary! Does she really think farmer Joe is going to vote for someone like her that's for slavery reparations and culturally leftist ideas(not saying reparations is bad, I just think it's a turnoff to poor whites that have been trending R recently). New Hampshire at least has a more well-educated populace so I could see her spending time there, especially in Rockingham county.

This is a really moronic hot take of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. Talk about out-of-touch leftists...

[Tintrlvr]

Ms. Elite is at it again.

The minority candidate is the "elite?"

She did not do or say anything of the sort, but glad you’ve bought into a smear campaign.

[Tintrlvr]

Ms. Elite is at it again.

The minority candidate is the "elite?"

She did not do or say anything of the sort, but glad you’ve bought into a smear campaign.

https://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-ff-federal-judges-order-state-to-release-more-prisoners-20141114-story.html

This is pure ignorance. Nothing in there says that she said it, did it or was in any way involved. State AG offices handle thousands of cases and have dozens if not hundreds of attorneys. The AG does not read nearly all of the briefs that her office puts out or control or approve the arguments other attorneys make in court. It’s not great that some other attorney thought this was a good argument, but it’s not relevant to her at all. She’s also said that she was unaware of the argument and strongly condemned it.

But feel free to be a sheep.

[Tintrlvr]

It doesn't matter, she needs to come close in an early primary state, like NV or SC and now Bernie is kneck and kneck with Biden in SC and NV

South Carolina would be ground territory to start fleshing her challengers away. Just mentioned Bernie tone-deaf racial comments or Biden's past bill votes and she'll start to gain ground with the constituency that will put our nominee against Trump.

This will come. People are still acting like the votes are cast tomorrow.

[Tintrlvr]

It doesn't matter, she needs to come close in an early primary state, like NV or SC and now Bernie is kneck and kneck with Biden in SC and NV

South Carolina would be ground territory to start fleshing her challengers away. Just mentioned Bernie tone-deaf racial comments or Biden's past bill votes and she'll start to gain ground with the constituency that will put our nominee against Trump.

This will come. People are still acting like the votes are cast tomorrow.

Harris had been polling 5% ever since the Biden surge.  So, its not like she has been close since, she was the frontrunner in March, in these poll.

Bernie has been in second in most of these polls and had a bump before Biden made the announcement.

Californians are looking at other candidates. The only superdelegate to go out of his way to support Harris was Newsom. Rendell is supporting Biden

The "Biden surge" -- which literally just happened a few days ago. If anything, that should tell you that everything is very volatile in the primary electorate (something no one should need to be told) and essentially no one is committed to their candidate, and events will inevitably overtake all of the candidates.

I am certain that someone other than Joe Biden will lead multiple national polls at some point before the Iowa caucuses. That doesn't mean Biden won't ultimately win (or even be leading nationally at the time of the Iowa caucuses), but it does emphasize how ridiculous looking at poll movements (or even poll positions, beyond candidates who are clearly struggling to gain traction at 0-1%) at this stage in the game is.

[Tintrlvr]

could Harris be a good fit for WI? Convince me

Turnout in Milwaukee is the same as 2012, everything else is the same as 2016, Harris wins Wisconsin.

[Tintrlvr]

Can someone explain what's up with Harris's accent? It sure isn't Californian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMlrGte-RmM

Well for one thing she isn't white, and she spent her teenage years in Canada.

What accent? I don't hear any accent. Her father was Jamaican and I still don't hear any hint of that.

Her mother (who she was actually mostly raised by) was from India, but you wouldn't be able to tell from the way she talks.

I don't think Kamala would realistically have picked up a stereotypical Cali accent in her childhood, since she 1) initially grew up in a black neighborhood, and 2) spent her teenage years in Canada

Did she actually grow up in a segregated black neighborhood?  Berkley is under 10% black and it only has one high school so everyone flows into it.  Her mom in a Berkley PhD biomedical researcher and her dad is an economics professor at Stanford.  Her mom's family was upper class to elite in India, mom's father was a senior diplomat.

Berkeley was around 25% black in the 70s, and it had zoned high schools. They lived in a majority black area (that is still plurality black) on the southwest side of Berkeley.

[Tintrlvr]

Man, I can't stand Tulsi:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jul/23/tulsi-gabbard-kamala-harris-not-qualified-serve-co/

Tulsi has been bizarrely silent on and defensive of Biden who she actually disagrees with, but goes after Kamala on temperament?

I knew she was a bad draw on the debate stage for Harris. I am hoping her political irrelevance doesn't give her a real opportunity to go after Kamala on stage. And the merits of her opinion aside, dumb to telegraph a potential punch weeks out. Harris kept her mouth shut before knifing Biden so effectively.

That Harris staffer had quite the one-liner takedown of Gabbard, though. If Harris used that line in the debate, Gabbard might have to drop out on stage.

You're making me feel icky clicking through to the Washington Times. Can we use real news sources next time?

[Tintrlvr]

Kamala Harris certainly has many things going for her but having personally observed elections since the 1960s, I would say that as a presidential candidate, she is flawed in a number of ways, including (1) insufficient likeability and (2) the tendency to come across as overly harsh and angry/mean-spirited. Those qualities don't lead to a presidential candidate getting enough votes to be elected.

Rolling out the usual tropes against female candidates I see.

No, it's just by coincidence that Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar are said to suffer from the same problems.

Tulsi Gabbard is hot, so she's not harsh, angry or mean-spirited.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/JohnDule/status/1183325120799985664?s=20

Shilling your own tweets elsewhere because you think you're really clever... sad, too sad to even warrant an exclamation mark.

[Tintrlvr]

I think if she endorsed anyone upon dropping out, it would most likely be Buttigieg. But it also depends on how the race shapes up before she drops out and when she actually did drop out, whether that would be after Iowa, after South Carolina or after Super Tuesday (or later, if her candidacy catches on again and she gains a little momentum).