PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[tjstarling]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Obama ran in very blue Illinois against freaking Alan Keyes. Something tells me Kenyatta won’t have that luxury in a much less blue PA. He would be an incredible risky, and I would say stupid, nominee in a likely 2022 election environment. “But he’s progressive and can boost youth an minority turnout” (just like Andrew Gilliam who did neither of those things in a much better political environment). I’ll take Fetterman who is “progressive” but maybe can con enough people with the Everyman schtick or some moderate hero who can win. People need to realize issue positions don’t mean squat to voters who don’t live in a bubble online. Style, winning, and power are all that matter in politics.

[tjstarling]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

It's a shame he never ran for president so we'll never know how we he performed in Pennsylvania. He would have probably lost by 10 points if he had.

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Obama ran in very blue Illinois against freaking Alan Keyes. Something tells me Kenyatta won’t have that luxury in a much less blue PA. He would be an incredible risky, and I would say stupid, nominee in a likely 2022 election environment. “But he’s progressive and can boost youth an minority turnout” (just like Andrew Gilliam who did neither of those things in a much better political environment). I’ll take Fetterman who is “progressive” but maybe can con enough people with the Everyman schtick or some moderate hero who can win. People need to realize issue positions don’t mean squat to voters who don’t live in a bubble online. Style, winning, and power are all that matter in politics.

Yeah, he ran a race anywhere except a deep blue stronghold, all those rural democrats would have never voted for him. Unlike Hillary Clinton who would have won the state in a landslide through #populism.

1. PA is a much different state now than 2008 - coalition and partisanship are different.

2. Obama certainly has considerable political skill but democrats could have nominated a paper bag in ‘08 and stood a good chance of winning. Ignoring context/political environment is lazy analysis.

3. I can’t cite any empirics on this, however, I actually expect that, both nationally and especially in a few of your #populist states that were quite democratic locally at the time, Obama’s race and/or name likely cost him votes. There are states, such as IN, where nominating Obama was a positive due to regional impacts, but I suspect generic white Democrat would have convincingly outperformed him overall. That’s an indictment on America more so than on Obama himself.

4. Isn’t Obama insufficiently progressive nowadays? If so, how is his performance in the state EIGHT or TWELVE years ago indicative of how a “real” progressive with a funny name would perform.

[tjstarling]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

Wisconsin...2012. Madison lesbo didn't stand a chance.

Can a gay candidate win statewide in PA? Sure. Could a black candidate? Sure. Could a so-called progressive? Sure. Could a Philadelphian? Sure.

Could a gay, black, progressive from Philadelphia win in a likely mediocre to poor ‘22 environment? Color me skeptical.

Baldwin was elected in good Dem years. She’s not a good example as national environment overrides so-called “candidate quality.” And the Georgia comparison is a weak one. Dems were at rock bottom with rural culturally conservative voters in Georgia so they could appeal to their ascendant base in the Atlanta metro area and rely on Trump shooting Republicans in the foot leading to turnout differentials that were in the Dems favor. PA is different. Dems still need these white working class rural voters to some extent. They haven’t hit rock bottom with that group in PA - yet.